so average points to win the league since 2010 is 93.7 average for second place is 88.4 average for third place is 83.8
so while it says that since 2010 the team in second had achieved 88 points on average you only need 84 points on average to finish above third, obviously thats not an exact science and you can get freak seasons such as Brighton in 2016 where they got 89 points and had to settle for the playoffs and still didn't go up yet in three of those nine seasons 89 points would win you the league
but looking at the table now Sheff Utd in third on 64 points can get to 96, so I'd think you're looking at least needing 86 points for the top two
incidentally the team finishing 4th bottom the last nine seasons have averaged 48.1 points, Ipswich can get 57 if they win all 12 of their remaining games, they've won 3 out of 34 so far this season
At the moment we're averaging 1.97 points per game, so essentially 2 ppg. If we do that between now and then end of the season, which is more than achievable considering the games we have left, then we'll finish on 90 points, so we'd be extremely unlucky to miss out with that.
As for Ipswich playing Leeds and Sheff Utd last 2 games of the season, they'll be long down by then, so hopefully they can have a mini-revival and win both games. In a way it would be actually be pretty hilarious if they do get results in those games, and we manage to clinch the autos by a point or two. It'd be like Lambert doing us one last favour hopefully it won't come to that anyway, and I doubt it will.