The Demise of the Pax Americana

[lyb]

Trump's announcement of his desire to annex Greenland, take the Panama canal and rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America is possbly the most shocking thing I've ever seen from the USA.

The US' supremacy has only partly been built on military power; the other part has been building a network of allies. Now it seems the US is intent on bullying and harrassing its allies in acts that can only be described as imperialist.

What does this mean for Ukraine now that the driving force of the UN now openly declares that all bets are off regarding sovereign borders? Can China take this as a green light to invade Taiwan?

Iran, China, Russia, and every other country that fancies expanding its territory must be ecstatic.

 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man]

I don't think Trump is serious about annexing Greenland. It's a combination of chucking words out there to see what happens, and playing for laughs

It was noteworthy that Denmark announced extra defence spending in Greenland right after Trump initially brought the subject of buying it again

The US still has it's base at Thule.

 

[morty]

I don't think Trump is serious about annexing Greenland. It's a combination of chucking words out there to see what happens, and playing for laughs

It was noteworthy that Denmark announced extra defence spending in Greenland right after Trump initially brought the subject of buying it again

The US still has it's base at Thule.

Was just about to type similar, I think he is just swinging his balls to let people know he's back.

I completely understand his stance on Greenland re Chinese and Russian ships, and their dangerous proximity to US waters. The actual answer will be some kind of trade deal and a bilateral defence deal to perhaps expand Thule.

I think the Panama thing would perhaps follow similar line re a trade deal, I doubt very much he will invade, he doesn't really have a track record for such things, he's a businessman, not a warfighter. I think all this is about making Americans feel big and powerful again.

I have to say I enjoy his rhetoric around the hostages, it will be interesting to see what transpires (if they haven't just killed them all already)

 

[morty]

Regarding Ukraine, I think Trump can make some real progress there. I think both sides have lost the appetite for war, and would gladly accept some kind of compromise. Whilst I get that Russia were completely wrong to invade, I also get their point about NATO expansionism too.

 

[Fen Canary]

Regarding Ukraine, I think Trump can make some real progress there. I think both sides have lost the appetite for war, and would gladly accept some kind of compromise. Whilst I get that Russia were completely wrong to invade, I also get their point about NATO expansionism too.

I disagree, why should Russia get to say which alliances other sovereign nations join? NATO and Russia had long had agreements that no heavy weapons or battalions would be stationed on countries that bordered Russia, which NATI had always abided by until Russia decided to annex Crimea. Russia’s actions in Georgia and Ukraine just prove that all those Eastern European countries that were desperate to join NATO were right to do so.
As for the Americans, whilst I think it’s mostly bluster from Trump I think he’s playing a very dangerous game by doing so. If he makes the relationship between America and the rest purely transactional in trying to extract as much as he can then others will eventually do the same and look elsewhere. Once enough do that and it’s lack of allies cause the dollar to lose its status as essentially the gold standard America will be bankrupt

 

[morty]

I disagree, why should Russia get to say which alliances other sovereign nations join? NATO and Russia had long had agreements that no heavy weapons or battalions would be stationed on countries that bordered Russia, which NATI had always abided by until Russia decided to annex Crimea. Russia’s actions in Georgia and Ukraine just prove that all those Eastern European countries that were desperate to join NATO were right to do so.
As for the Americans, whilst I think it’s mostly bluster from Trump I think he’s playing a very dangerous game by doing so. If he makes the relationship between America and the rest purely transactional in trying to extract as much as he can then others will eventually do the same and look elsewhere. Once enough do that and it’s lack of allies cause the dollar to lose its status as essentially the gold standard America will be bankrupt

Crimea wasn't a NATO country, so frankly, what business was it of theirs? The answer to the current situation is diplomacy, not more war.

I like Trump's approach, he is putting America first. I wish we had a leader that did the same.

 

[Fen Canary]

Crimea wasn't a NATO country, so frankly, what business was it of theirs? The answer to the current situation is diplomacy, not more war.

I like Trump's approach, he is putting America first. I wish we had a leader that did the same.

Crimea wasn’t a country at all, it was part of Ukraine, a country that Russia signed a treaty with promising to respect its territory integrity in exchange for giving up its nuclear arsenal. Once Russia reneged on that signed agreement the eastern bloc understandably decided that Russia couldn’t be trusted. Even then no drills took place anywhere near Russias border. Russia simply used NATO as an excuse, and too many blindly believed that narrative because they (understandably) don’t like their own governments.
I’ve also no problem with Trump putting America’s interest first, that’s his job. However if his actions piss off too many allies and result in America losing the dollar as the worlds reserve currency due to a lack of friends/support then he will have destroyed the country, as its current financial situation simply isn’t sustainable without others buying American debt

 

[morty]

Crimea wasn’t a country at all, it was part of Ukraine, a country that Russia signed a treaty with promising to respect its territory integrity in exchange for giving up its nuclear arsenal. Once Russia reneged on that signed agreement the eastern bloc understandably decided that Russia couldn’t be trusted. Even then no drills took place anywhere near Russias border. Russia simply used NATO as an excuse, and too many blindly believed that narrative because they (understandably) don’t like their own governments.
I’ve also no problem with Trump putting America’s interest first, that’s his job. However if his actions piss off too many allies and result in America losing the dollar as the worlds reserve currency due to a lack of friends/support then he will have destroyed the country, as its current financial situation simply isn’t sustainable without others buying American debt

Whilst I hear all that, what business is it of ours? I'm definitely not painting Russia as the good guys, but to polarise the situation probably isn't entirely accurate.

The whole war in Ukraine is just a sham, a further extension of the war east and west have been fighting for about 70 years, while pretending we aren't fighting each other. A really interesting watch, on Netflix, is a documentary called "Turning point, The bomb and the cold war" which illustrates that as soon as America and Russia became nuclear nations, they couldn't go directly to war, so have been fighting proxy wars ever since, ie Korea, Vietnam and countless skirmishes in Africa.

I think the American economy will go from strength to strength in the next term. I wish I could say the same about ours...

 

[TheGunnShow]

The whole NATO argument from Russia is a farce and based on complete lies perpetrated by the Russians. The most obvious counterpoint to that is that NATO does not actively expand, but other countries ask to join them. Russian aggression and agitation basically drove some of the old Eastern bloc into the arms of NATO (especially the Baltic States).

The fact that Finland, a country that remained neutral for so long despite Russia being the whole of its eastern border - and indeed lost one of its largest cities to the then Soviet Union in World War Two (Viipuri, now Viborg) - only chose to become a member of NATO due to this latest bout of Russian aggression should have given the lie to that to absolutely everyone.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4581098-shutting-down-russias-three-favorite-lies-about-nato/

As for Greenland, part of me thinks their mineral wealth is something he's looking at, and there's also a bit of me thinking long-term in terms of encouraging Greenlandic independence as the Greenlanders have always been that bit more militant re. their Danish rulers than the Faroese have been. The recent scandals about forced sterilisation and reparations to that effect may have been a bit of a catalyst.

Someone else mentioned Thule, but don't forget also that there was another base at Sondre Stromfjord, now known as Kangerlussuaq. (I know, I did the marathon there in 2016!)

 

[Sonyc]

Crimea wasn’t a country at all, it was part of Ukraine, a country that Russia signed a treaty with promising to respect its territory integrity in exchange for giving up its nuclear arsenal. Once Russia reneged on that signed agreement the eastern bloc understandably decided that Russia couldn’t be trusted. Even then no drills took place anywhere near Russias border. Russia simply used NATO as an excuse, and too many blindly believed that narrative because they (understandably) don’t like their own governments.
I’ve also no problem with Trump putting America’s interest first, that’s his job. However if his actions piss off too many allies and result in America losing the dollar as the worlds reserve currency due to a lack of friends/support then he will have destroyed the country, as its current financial situation simply isn’t sustainable without others buying American debt

Why Donald Trump’s election could hasten the end of US dollar dominance

Trump’s plans will probably strengthen the US dollar, which could have adverse effects on both the US and wider global economies.

theconversation.com

In reference to your last sentence Fen this was an article in early December about the potential economic consequences.

His big message was (and remains) "promises made, promises kept" so it will be an interesting first year to see if that turns out to be the case.

 

[Mr Angry]

We took in a Ukrainian woman and her baby in May 2022-she was here for 10 months and now has her own place. Her husband has been over twice in the last 4 months and is probably coming to stay permanently in March/April. They are from Kharkiv and the final straw for him was the 12 rockets that he heard and felt on Christmas Day.
They are disillusioned with Zelenskyy-although I don’t think they really thought much of him to begin with-and they are waiting to see what happens when Trump is inaugurated.

 

[morty]

We took in a Ukrainian woman and her baby in May 2022-she was here for 10 months and now has her own place. Her husband has been over twice in the last 4 months and is probably coming to stay permanently in March/April. They are from Kharkiv and the final straw for him was the 12 rockets that he heard and felt on Christmas Day.
They are disillusioned with Zelenskyy-although I don’t think they really thought much of him to begin with-and they are waiting to see what happens when Trump is inaugurated.

That was extremely kind of you, well done.

Yes, Zelensky seems to love the spotlight and making it all about him, but I would definitely question his political nous.

The best result, for everyone, is peace.

 

[Mr Angry]

That was extremely kind of you, well done.

Yes, Zelensky seems to love the spotlight and making it all about him, but I would definitely question his political nous.

The best result, for everyone, is peace.

It felt like the right thing to do and they are now part of the family.
Hopefully Trump won’t sell Ukraine down the river.

 

[morty]

It felt like the right thing to do and they are now part of the family.
Hopefully Trump won’t sell Ukraine down the river.

I honestly don't think he will. The old trope of his Russian links has been proven wrong, time and time again.

 

[lyb]

I don't think Trump is serious about annexing Greenland. It's a combination of chucking words out there to see what happens, and playing for laughs

It was noteworthy that Denmark announced extra defence spending in Greenland right after Trump initially brought the subject of buying it again

The US still has its base at Thule.

Whether serious or not, the rhetoric on record from the President of the USA makes it impossible to condemn military conquest of other peoples sovereign territory.

Up to now the US has been the de facto underwriter of international law. If this is the new normal, then it’s fine for Russia to annex all of Ukraine if it can win by force, it’s fine for China to take Taiwan is it thinks it can win by force, it’s fine for Argentina to take the Falklands if it thinks it can win by force, it’s fine for Israel to take the last remaining bits of Palestine for its own, etc.

 

[Ricardo]

Trump issues a few tweets to get people talking then nothing much happens. It's all done to wind up the woke crowd. The chances of invading Canada are essentially nil.

 

[Fenway Frank]

Americans think they're the centre of the world, I've been told a couple of times by an American that they saved us in WW2

 

[Ricardo]

More likely it was the Red Army and Lend Lease that saved us. We were bankrupt by 1942 and couldn't have carried on without American loans.

 

[Fen Canary]

The

More likely it was the Red Army and Lend Lease that saved us. We were bankrupt by 1942 and couldn't have carried on without American loans.

The Americans did very well out of the two world wars financially. They bankrupt Britain though

 

[lyb]

Trump issues a few tweets to get people talking then nothing much happens. It's all done to wind up the woke crowd. The chances of invading Canada are essentially nil.

I’d have agreed with that in 2016, but things feel different this time.