Our Rivals Thread

[TA Canary]

For us to not get promoted despite winning all our remaining games would mean the current top three would all win their final five matches. I don't know what the odds of that happening are but they must be tiny.

Someone is bound to stumble at some point.

 

[It's Character Forming]

For us to not get promoted despite winning all our remaining games would mean the current top three would all win their final five matches. I don't know what the odds of that happening are but they must be tiny.

Someone is bound to stumble at some point.

Exactly

Even if you assume the top teams have a 50% chance of winning each individual game on average then the chance all of the top 4 will all win all 4 is the same as tossing heads 16 times in a row. Or if you take it as given that City win our final four (for the sake of this exercise) then the chances would be the same as tossing a coin and getting 12 heads in a row.

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

All Im saying is that its not quite in our hands. If we had a point advantage, like Bournemouth do, you can keep telling yourself you cant be caught. If we win our final 4 games 1-0 for example and Watford do the same but win just one of them 2-0 - they take our place.

Its as likely that the other 2 will win their remaining games as it is we will. Looking at their remaining fixtures there arent any you feel confident they'll definitely drop points. By contrast, both Bournemouth and Watford will be looking at our game with Middlesbrough and thinking that a draw could take them both out of play and rubbing their hands.

We need Watford or Bournemouth to drop points. We can deal with Middlesbrough ourselves (ie we cant both win all our remaining games)

 

[TA Canary]

Actually I should make a small correction since I just realized Bournemouth and Watford both won their last two games. So that would mean six straight wins, not five. If it happens somehow that would be a crazy end to the season.

 

[It's Character Forming]

All Im saying is that its not quite in our hands. If we had a point advantage, like Bournemouth do, you can keep telling yourself you cant be caught. If we win our final 4 games 1-0 for example and Watford do the same but win just one of them 2-0 - they take our place.

Its as likely that the other 2 will win their remaining games as it is we will. Looking at their remaining fixtures there arent any you feel confident they'll definitely drop points. By contrast, both Bournemouth and Watford will be looking at our game with Middlesbrough and thinking that a draw could take them both out of play and rubbing their hands.

We need Watford or Bournemouth to drop points. We can deal with Middlesbrough ourselves (ie we cant both win all our remaining games)

Why do we need them to drop points when we're now 2nd?

If we do as well as Watford and Boro over the rest of the season (in terms of points and goal difference) then we go up. Simples. That's what I call "in our own hands".

Yes we might not score as many as Watford etc - that would be failing to do as well as them....

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

Why do we need them to drop points when we're now 2nd?

If we do as well as Watford and Boro over the rest of the season (in terms of points and goal difference) then we go up. Simples. That's what I call "in our own hands".

Yes we might not score as many as Watford etc - that would be failing to do as well as them....

But thats my point, its not as simple as winning our last 4 games - we also have to keep an eye on other results - we have to better them. In our hands to me means if you win all your games you cant be caught and you dont have to worry about other teams. We need to also worry about how many Watford are scoring and make sure we're bettering them. That doesnt have the simplicity of just making sure you do your job. What your job is will change depending on what Watford do. If we had a point on them that wouldnt be the case.

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

Oh right. I have heard of Radiohead to be fair.

Just had the music channels on - Heart Shaped Box by Nirvana came on. Do kids still listen to Nirvana?!

 

[dj161]

looking at watford's remaining fixtures they do have a couple of tricky away games still to come, Forest away being the first, Forest have been in great form since Dougie Freedman came in, looking at their last 10 home games they've won 5 and lost 5, so its just about which Forest turn up on the night, hopefully its the one that have nothing to play for but given freedom to do their thing, knowing that they need to try and impress the new boss and keep some momentum going into next season.

The other away game is at Brighton, Brighton's home record over the last 10 games is 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, again a bit inconsistent, they've scored 16 and conceeded 15 in those 10 games so it's likely to be a tight match, but as we all know too well, with Chris Hughton in charge its vital who gets the first goal, if Brighton can nick a goal Watford might struggle to get through them.

all of this wont matter if we win all four of our remaining games 5-0, so lets all get behind the boys and get the goals flowing OTBC

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

looking at watford's remaining fixtures they do have a couple of tricky away games still to come, Forest away being the first, Forest have been in great form since Dougie Freedman came in, looking at their last 10 home games they've won 5 and lost 5, so its just about which Forest turn up on the night, hopefully its the one that have nothing to play for but given freedom to do their thing, knowing that they need to try and impress the new boss and keep some momentum going into next season.

The other away game is at Brighton, Brighton's home record over the last 10 games is 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, again a bit inconsistent, they've scored 16 and conceeded 15 in those 10 games so it's likely to be a tight match, but as we all know too well, with Chris Hughton in charge its vital who gets the first goal, if Brighton can nick a goal Watford might struggle to get through them.

all of this wont matter if we win all four of our remaining games 5-0, so lets all get behind the boys and get the goals flowing OTBC

Well if we beat Leeds 5-0 I'll stop worrying!  

 

[It's Character Forming]

But thats my point, its not as simple as winning our last 4 games - we also have to keep an eye on other results - we have to better them. In our hands to me means if you win all your games you cant be caught and you dont have to worry about other teams. We need to also worry about how many Watford are scoring and make sure we're bettering them. That doesnt have the simplicity of just making sure you do your job. What your job is will change depending on what Watford do. If we had a point on them that wouldnt be the case.

I can see your point.  But from Watford's point of view, it's not in their control because if we match their results and GD over the remaining 4 games, we stay above them.

I still think if we win all 4, we'll get 1st or 2nd.  Trouble is, winning all 4 is going to be a big ask for any of the top teams....

 

[SussexYellow]

The only team that has control of the situation is Bournemouth. The rest of us need to watch other results.

I would not look to Brighton to do us a favour in terms of getting anything out of the Watford game. But if Hughton could protect a 1 - 0 defeat that might help.

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

The only team that has control of the situation is Bournemouth. The rest of us need to watch other results.

I would not look to Brighton to do us a favour in terms of getting anything out of the Watford game. But if Hughton could protect a 1 - 0 defeat that might help.

Its his gameplan, so anythings possible!

 

[Din]

Just had the music channels on - Heart Shaped Box by Nirvana came on. Do kids still listen to Nirvana?!

Oh yeah definitely. My girlfriend is a massive Nirvana fan, and in general they're still quite popular (I'm not a fan though particularly to be honest).

 

[Din]

Watford 1-0 up on Forest after 5 minutes

 

[KeiranShikari]

Pretty open half as you would expect. Gomez forced into 4 or 5 saves but Watford getting the goals.

We're going third tonight.

 

[morty]

Well that could have gone worse I guess!

 

[KeiranShikari]

They actually played better after going down to 10 men. Almost equalized before conceding the third.

Oh well. If we need GD come the end I'm sure we'll put 5 or 6 past Fulham.

 

[morty]

They actually played better after going down to 10 men. Almost equalized before conceding the third.

Oh well. If we need GD come the end I'm sure we'll put 5 or 6 past Fulham.

We know what we need to do. Goals, goals goals!

I fancy us to put 4 past Boro.

 

[Din]

Just to torture ourselves even more, with 5 minutes left at 2-1 Forest had this chance to equalise.

https://vine.co/v/ezz6vvg6J1g

 

[morty]

Just to torture ourselves even more, with 5 minutes left at 2-1 Forest had this chance to equalise.

https://vine.co/v/ezz6vvg6J1g

Saw it on SSN, how the hell could he miss?