Is the gap becoming a chasm?

[SussexYellow]

Mings £8m, Coleman £20m, and Real Madrid quoting £63m for a centre back that is at least on nodding terms with the twilight of his career.

OK these are probably newspaper talk prices but it does seem that the transfer market is moving to another level. More Sky money? More super rich owners? Whatever the reason it does look as though the step to us becoming longer term members of the exclusive club of the Premier League" is getting ever bigger.

Seamus Coleman would certainly improve our team but hardly transform it! And if we paid half of that valuation there would probably be an outcry from our support.

So is it time for a reality check, and seeing some of the targets we have been linked too in more positive light? 

 

[splutcho]

Actually if we paid £10m for Seamus Coleman I'd be thrilled, but that's not really the point of the what you're saying. 

In general I agree though, it's getting really stupid. £8m for Mings was probably the line. That's about 4 times his actual value.

 

[Boyerboy]

It has ever been thus since Alf Common became the first £1,000 footballer over 100 years ago. It's more than 60 years since Albert Quixall became the first footballer to cost his weight in gold.

This is more than the periodic rants against money though. There is a substantive change going on. These prices are not aberrations in my view but harbingers.

The evidence of writers like Szymanski in Soccernomics is that 90% of the variation in the average league position of a club over time is explained by the relative spend to others in the league. At a very simplistic level look at the difference between Man Utd and U.S., U.S. And Ipswich and Ipswich and Cambridge.

As the money in the premier league grows so does the desperation to stay. It is also basic economics that price is affected by supply and demand. Mings is a decent prospect. Coleman is a proven competent Prem player. So, we will see transfers rocket because even City has the resources to pay undreamed off prices.

Coleman is no more worth £20m than a two bedroom excouncil house in Cambridge is worth £250k in any moral or sensible way but both prices are competitive in the modern world and both will increase in time. The supply is much less than the money chasing them and the price pressure will be upwards.

I predict that City will spend more than £10m for a player this summer. I also predict that Hull will get more than £10m for Brady. Whether it is the same deal remains to be seen. It is mad. The football world has gone mad. But, you cannot be a hermit in a World gone mad unless you want to be left behind. It is absolutely essential that City is not left behind at the moment. As the world divides into haves and have nots, we must be amongst the haves.

There is no alternative.

 

[SussexYellow]

I agree Boyerboy and we may well break £10m this window. The problem is £10m does not appear to buy much any more. It looks to be about the rate for a competent journeyman. And the expectation amongst the faithful at Carrow Rd would be huge for a player with that price tag. Particularly after RvW.

The problem is how do we remain with the haves. We certainly do not have the spending power to lift ourselves to a solid mid table squad. Our squad is reasonably experienced and actually not that young - which could be a good thing. So the opportunity to bring in some younger players whose value could significantly increase. Speculative yes, but a way of trying to stay amongst the haves. What we did not do, despite 3 years in the premiership is develop players that have have attracted a significant price tag - as Saints and Swansea have done. 

We do not have super rich owners, the Sky money on its own is not likely to be enough, so developing and selling players for significant sums is a way of bridging the chasm.

 

[Canaryboy]

Seamus Coleman moved to Everton for £60k, and Tyrone Mings signed for Ipswich for £10k, meanwhile we've just signed Mulumbu on a free transfer and somebody will be signing Bakary Sako on a free transfer this summer. 

So perhaps paying £10m for players is a mugs game. We showed last summer that bargains are still out there to be found, we signed Cameron Jerome for £1.5m and were apparently close to signing Callum Wilson for £3m. 

I still think that the best thing we could do this summer is bring a few deserving players up from the Championship, I really liked the look of Moses Odubajo from Brentford, 21 year old right back. Perhaps if Bournemouth were to pay £8m for Mings, whilst we managed to sign somebody less hyped for £3m, we'd actually have the last laugh? 

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

How do people think we would do if we barely strengthened at all? The team is essentially the same team which was only narrowly relegated, and arguably wouldnt have been with a different manager. I have much more optimism about Alex Neil's ability to keep us up than Hughton's, mainly because I have faith in Alex Neil's approach, both mentally and tactically, whereas I always felt Hughton's approach was terminally flawed. Even with Hughton's ineffective tactics we only narrowly went down - my point being the squad was never woefully inadequate in terms of the necessary quality. The squad is much the same, arguably we have replaced some players with more effective if less glamorous ones. 

I think not bringing players in is a massive mistake as it generates a feeling of a lack of ambition and players either feel too comfortable or apathetic, fresh blood is always needed to stop things going stale, but for the sake of argument - if Mulumbu was to be our only signing this summer - would we be likely to fall woefully short? Or would we be in the same relegation battle we'd be in after spending 30-40m?

Me personally, I think the squad needs a few quality additions and maybe some investments for the future. I dont feel we need major surgery. Depends how much Neil wants to mould the team in his own image I guess.

 

[splutcho]

If we signed nobody else from now I think  we'd finish bottom with about 30 points.

 

[Canaryboy]

We need a good left winger, a good centre back, and a backup left back at a bare minimum in my opinion. Preferably a good right back too. 

I think we'd manage without a new striker, I honestly think that Hooper and Jerome are good enough. Remains to be seen with Grabban. 

With centre midfield, I think that's a position where we'd need to spend big on somebody high profile or not spend at all because we've got so many decent centre midfielders now! Wouldn't say no to proven quality, Huddlestone or somebody, but I don't think its a priority. 

 

[Canaryboy]

Me personally, I think the squad needs a few quality additions and maybe some investments for the future. I dont feel we need major surgery. Depends how much Neil wants to mould the team in his own image I guess.

Agree, quality over quantity, apart from left back where we may need somebody to make up the numbers I think any new arrival should be somebody who Alex Neil believes improves the team rather than the squad, we've got so many squad players especially in midfield. 

I'd be happy with just three more players if they are three quality players who on paper should improve the team. 

 

[KeiranShikari]

If we signed nobody else from now I think  we'd finish bottom with about 30 points.

We finished in 18th with 38 points last time and now we actually have a forward that can hold the ball up. Of course we haven't got Snodgrass but we do have a Redmond who is both a year more experienced and played in a role which suits him. 

I honestly believe this squad of players would stay up, although a couple on long term injuries in defense could really hurt us.

 

[splutcho]

We finished in 18th with 38 points last time and now we actually have a forward that can hold the ball up. Of course we haven't got Snodgrass but we do have a Redmond who is both a year more experienced and played in a role which suits him. 

I honestly believe this squad of players would stay up, although a couple on long term injuries in defense could really hurt us.

True, but the couple of years hasn't been kind on our defenders. We're a decent Turner down these days, Whittaker struggles more and more with pace, Martin just isn't very good. Plus for all his flaws, Fer did his part in our good spells and we didn't really replace him.

 

[splutcho]

Oh, and we still have no left winger.

 

[KeiranShikari]

We now have Mulumbu, whilst he isn't as creative as Fer he is extremely solid and energetic.Having him in the side will allow the likes of Wes and Howson to do what they're best at. Remember how good Howson looked under Lambert?

Would certainly be a huge problem down the left if Olsson got injured. We don't know if Toffolo can step up 2 levels as you've said, no left winger. It's getting rarer for teams to use 2 out and out wingers anyway so Johnson's ''winger but not really'' position would probably have to be learned by one of the other midfielders, maybe Vadis? Or Redmond over to the left and Bennett on the right.

The back line is far from perfect but I think we'd get by. Whittaker has never been really fast but was easily one of the best right backs in the league for the last 6 months. I honestly prefer Martin at CB in the Premier League than I do in the Champs. I'm also pretty sure that there's a player in Ryan Bennett, I'm not a religious man but I'd be praying for his fitness. 

So yeah, I think we could manage but I'm glad we don't have to.

 

[Canaryboy]

We finished in 18th with 38 points last time and now we actually have a forward that can hold the ball up. Of course we haven't got Snodgrass but we do have a Redmond who is both a year more experienced and played in a role which suits him. 

I honestly believe this squad of players would stay up, although a couple on long term injuries in defense could really hurt us.

I think you may have forgotten how bad we were defensively last time out. 

I agree that we could probably manage going into this season without a new striker (although I'd still like to see a big man in case Jerome gets injured).

But our defence needs some serious work. We've got the exact same defence minus Garrido, with Turner being past his best, Russell Martin deciding that he isn't a right back anymore, and Whittaker ageing. 

Personally I think we need a left back, right back, centre back and a left winger at a bare minimum. 

If we went into this season with the same defence I'd have no confidence at all, in fact I'd put money on us conceding the most goals in the league. 

 

[KeiranShikari]

I think you may have forgotten how bad we were defensively last time out. 

I haven't, I'm just a firm believer that under this manager we will see a completely different Norwich City. We were very disjointed under Hughton but we now defend much better as a team, I think that alone would make up for some of the missing quality, not to mention the fact we'll score more goals now.

Just look at our defense for the season when we were last promoted.

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

I think the defence needs work. Bassong whenever I saw him looked a bit sluggish, looked a lot less athletic than when we first saw him in a Norwich shirt, could this be age. Turner has evaporated and the two of them formed a great partnership. Russ I think is ok, but we could certainly improve. Whittaker whilst a good footballer doesnt have the pace for me to be anything but a vulnerability defensively. Olsson less impressive this season but was outstanding in his first. Think the defence does need quite some investment

 

[Wiz]

We sold the great Ron Davies for thirty grand, says it all really, the gap is now vast imo.

 

[hogesar]

True, but the couple of years hasn't been kind on our defenders. We're a decent Turner down these days, Whittaker struggles more and more with pace, Martin just isn't very good. Plus for all his flaws, Fer did his part in our good spells and we didn't really replace him.

Fer wasn't / isn't a big miss for us, nor needed replacing. Snodgrass was our most prolific player last season.

I agree we won't see Turner playing for us again, but to say Martin 'just isn't very good' isn't correct in mine, or several managers opinions.