Championship finances.

Monty13

Monty13

Active Member
Yes I understand what you meant. I just disagree entirely with the idea that our financial situation can be improving if our debt is increasing year on year, both in pounds sterling and as a percentage of GDP, and the interest paid on our debt is increasing year on year. I don't care how George Osborne wants to spin it. 

So I could go and put £10,000 on a credit card this year, make no repayments, and next year put another £5000 on the credit card. My financial situation is "improving" because I've only had to stick £5000 on the credit card, despite the fact that I've now got more debt (including interest from the first £10,000) and my interest repayments are at an all time high. That isn't an improving financial situation, that is a spiral of unsustainable debt which I'd have no real prospect of ever being able to repay. 
Whether the chancellor was of blue or red persuasion he would be spinning the same story and he would still be right. You may not like it but the alternative to a decreasing deficit is an increasing or stagnant one, therefore the economy is improving in the sense that yearly losses are decreasing. We are also refinancing debt to cheaper rates. We are also also the fastest growing G7 economy. These aren't meaningless achievements and to just look at it as, yea but the debt is still increasing, is to fundamentally misunderstand the nature and life cycle of a national economy.

A better analogy would be a business owner who took over a business in tough times with huge debts and yearly losses and is slowly turning that around by cutting costs and improving his business until the current improvements in revenue are large enough to cover his costs.

Not that any analogy is particularly relevant, no person or business is anything like as complicated as a countries economy. The only particularly relevant analogy is like the majority of us, the government has and always will always be in debt.

Anyway....Championship FFP, I'm all for it, finally we are one of the big boys, economically speaking and I hope all those clubs who have been taking the *bleep* for years are held to account, I feel sorry for their fans but their clubs had a choice and they decided to bury their head in the sand.
 
GazzaTCC

GazzaTCC

Active Member
I wonder though, just how many clubs actually turn a profit, on a regular basis? I seem to remember that last season, if FFP were fully applied to the Premiership, only us, Arsenal and another I can't remember, would actually comply.
It's not about making a profit Morty, it should be about spending in accordance with your turnover. Ipswich actually spent more on wages than they received in income. Absolutely crazy
 
morty

morty

Moderator
Staff member
It's not about making a profit Morty, it should be about spending in accordance with your turnover. Ipswich actually spent more on wages than they received in income. Absolutely crazy
You would have thought that after so many years in the Championship, they would have the hang of it by now ;)
 
lyb

lyb

Active Member
I strongly suspect that there may be a bit of wishful thinking regarding Marcus Evans' malicious intentions regarding Ipswich Town. He's a successful businessman with a very strong brand in the conference industry. I don't think anybody buys a football club thinking they're going to make any money out of it, save for a few brands at the top of the Premier League, and that hasn't always worked out so well. He's also Suffolk born.

First and foremost I want a Norwich promotion this season, but I'd quite like Ipswich to have a slot as well. No point having a Derby rival that you hardly ever get to play.
 
Canaryboy

Canaryboy

Well-Known Member
You may not like it but the alternative to a decreasing deficit is an increasing or stagnant one
Presumably the other option is a non-existent one? Or even a budget surplus? Which if using the Ipswich Town analogy is precisely what Norwich City managed for three consecutive seasons.

I'd be saying the same if Balls were the chancellor, in fact I can't stand the guy. Completely understand why we have had a deficit for the past five years, but I still find it difficult to refer to a shrinking deficit as an 'improving financial position'. Whether being used to describe Ipswich Town's situation or the UK economy. 
 
Last edited by a moderator:
  • Like
Reactions: lyb
lyb

lyb

Active Member
Presumably the other option is a non-existent one? Or even a budget surplus? Which if using the Ipswich Town analogy is precisely what Norwich City managed for three consecutive seasons.

I'd be saying the same if Balls were the chancellor, in fact I can't stand the guy. Completely understand why we have had a deficit for the past five years, but I still find it difficult to refer to a shrinking deficit as an 'improving financial position'. 
I agree. "Good news: We're sinking into debt more slowly!"
 
Canaryboy

Canaryboy

Well-Known Member
I strongly suspect that there may be a bit of wishful thinking regarding Marcus Evans' malicious intentions regarding Ipswich Town. 
Probably right  ;)

Just a few years languishing in League One would be nice, after they took so much pleasure in our relegation in 2009, would serve them right.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
  • Like
Reactions: lyb
morty

morty

Moderator
Staff member
Probably right  ;)

Just a few years languishing in League One would be nice, after they took some much pleasure in our relegation in 2009, would serve them right.
Completely agree.

And remember how they waved tenners at us too?

That worked out pretty well :)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
lyb

lyb

Active Member
I don't know, I think whistling up to the Premiership, beating them in both derbies on the way, staying there for three years and clearing all the debts was as good a revenge as anything. :)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Monty13

Monty13

Active Member
Presumably the other option is a non-existent one? Or even a budget surplus? Which if using the Ipswich Town analogy is precisely what Norwich City managed for three consecutive seasons.

I'd be saying the same if Balls were the chancellor, in fact I can't stand the guy. Completely understand why we have had a deficit for the past five years, but I still find it difficult to refer to a shrinking deficit as an 'improving financial position'. Whether being used to describe Ipswich Town's situation or the UK economy. 
Of course it is, but expecting the country to move to a equilibrium or surplus from a peak of 167.4 billion a year in the space of five years in the current global economy, is frankly, ridiculous. The biggest mistake Osborne made (and he's made a few) was suggesting they would remove the deficit this parliament, it was never going to happen.

How can a reduction of a deficit not be an improvement? It's a completely illogical argument. As I pointed out the alternative is a worse or stagnant one causing a higher increase in overall debt. The debts going to increase, are you suggesting the magnitude is immaterial if there's any?
 
Canaryboy

Canaryboy

Well-Known Member
 
Of course it is, but expecting the country to move to a equilibrium or surplus from a peak of 167.4 billion a year in the space of five years in the current global economy, is frankly, ridiculous. The biggest mistake Osborne made (and he's made a few) was suggesting they would remove the deficit this parliament, it was never going to happen.

How can a reduction of a deficit not be an improvement? It's a completely illogical argument. As I pointed out the alternative is a worse or stagnant one causing a higher increase in overall debt. The debts going to increase, are you suggesting the magnitude is immaterial if there's any?
 

My only point here has been that I struggle to see how financial losses and increased debt could ever be referred to as an "improved financial position", for me it is a "worsened financial position". Each year that debt increases and interest repayments increase our financial position is worsening, particularly if it has worsened relative to GDP (or, even, GDP per capita). 

I've tried not to make this about party politics, this is all to do with the Ipswich Town analogy. If we do want to make it about party politics though, then the truth is that we have absolutely no idea where we'd currently be with a Labour government, we could be better off or we could be worse off. You don't know and I don't know, which is why I've tried to completely avoid reigniting the red vs blue argument. Particularly as I didn't vote for either in 2010. 

If I have an income of £25000 this year and rack up a new credit card debt of £5,000, and an income of £28,000 next year but finish the year with a credit card debt of £9,000 (lets assume 24 months interest free)...... With your logic my financial situation has improved because the difference between my income and expenditure was only £4000 instead of £5000. With my stance, I believe that my financial position has in fact worsened. I owe more money as a proportion of my income and my debt has grown at a faster rate than my income.

That leaves me in a worse position, not an improved one. The point at which I consider my situation to have 'improved' is the bit where either my debt decreases (particularly as a % proportion of my income) or my income rises at a faster rate than my debt increases (so, debt as a proportion of GDP). None of those are true of either Ipswich Town or the UK economy. I've reduced the deficit, but I certainly don't have an "improved financial position". 

Our debate was about whether we can use the words "improved financial position" to describe what is happening either with Ipswich Town or the UK economy, not about whether I thought George Osborne was under-performing in his role as Chancellor. You think that the phrase is suitable, and I don't, and that's fair enough. I suppose what is logical and what is illogical is highly subjective and down to each individuals thought process. Or perhaps its just semantics. 

I suppose a 7-0 defeat is worse than a 7-1 defeat, and we could look at it that way. I'd still struggle to put a positive spin on the 7-1 though. It would technically be an "improvement" in the result, but I'd probably never call it one, and it certainly wouldn't improve our position. Our position couldn't possible improve unless we managed a 1-1. 
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Monty13

Monty13

Active Member
 
 
My only point here has been that I struggle to see how financial losses and increased debt could ever be referred to as an "improved financial position", for me it is a "worsened financial position". Each year that debt increases and interest repayments increase our financial position is worsening, particularly if it has worsened relative to GDP (or, even, GDP per capita). 

I've tried not to make this about party politics, this is all to do with the Ipswich Town analogy. If we do want to make it about party politics though, then the truth is that we have absolutely no idea where we'd currently be with a Labour government, we could be better off or we could be worse off. You don't know and I don't know, which is why I've tried to completely avoid reigniting the red vs blue argument. Particularly as I didn't vote for either in 2010. 

If I have an income of £25000 this year and rack up a new credit card debt of £5,000, and an income of £28,000 next year but finish the year with a credit card debt of £9,000 (lets assume 24 months interest free)...... With your logic my financial situation has improved because the difference between my income and expenditure was only £4000 instead of £5000. With my stance, I believe that my financial position has in fact worsened. I owe more money as a proportion of my income and my debt has grown at a faster rate than my income.

That leaves me in a worse position, not an improved one. The point at which I consider my situation to have 'improved' is the bit where either my debt decreases (particularly as a % proportion of my income) or my income rises at a faster rate than my debt increases (so, debt as a proportion of GDP). None of those are true of either Ipswich Town or the UK economy. I've reduced the deficit, but I certainly don't have an "improved financial position". 

Our debate was about whether we can use the words "improved financial position" to describe what is happening either with Ipswich Town or the UK economy, not about whether I thought George Osborne was under-performing in his role as Chancellor. You think that the phrase is suitable, and I don't, and that's fair enough. I suppose what is logical and what is illogical is highly subjective and down to each individuals thought process. Or perhaps its just semantics. 

I suppose a 7-0 defeat is worse than a 7-1 defeat, and we could look at it that way. I'd still struggle to put a positive spin on the 7-1 though. It would technically be an "improvement" in the result, but I'd probably never call it one, and it certainly wouldn't improve our position. Our position couldn't possible improve unless we managed a 1-1. 
I'm sorry, but the point is whether you are talking Ipswich Town or UK PLC the facts remain the same, a reduction in yearly losses is an economic improvement, that is a fact. A business that had been making losses, but cuts those losses, is improving, that is how the market would view it, because that's what it is. Anything else is a fundamental misunderstanding of economics.

If you look at the UKs debt as a percentage of GDP then our current situation, whether you compare it to the last 100 years or even last 300 years of Government, and I would suggest looking at any smaller sample size is not particularly relevant when that amount of data is available (we had the worst financial crisis in 2008 since the 20's where incidentally our % debt was well over 150% of GDP), the current rate is distinctly average at around 90%, especially when you compare it to 238% at the end of WW2.

The fact is, that since the late 17th century records began the UK Government has been in debt to varying amounts, getting upset because that amount is currently increasing is almost factually irrelevant, we have had far worse debts and are still here, like a company going through bad times or a major expansion the bigger picture is the important thing.

united-kingdom-government-debt-to-gdp.png


Visually the point is easier to demonstrate. We had a huge spike in debt post the crash, where as debt as % of GDP had been fairly steadily fluctuating around 40%.

Now because the economy is growing, and the deficit is reducing, that % of GDP growth in debt is tailoring off even though we are still borrowing more. We can continue to borrow more in the future and if the economy increases the % will drop.

That is why there is economic improvement and an improved financial position. I don't care about the political argument, but I do think it's naive to believe there would be a huge difference in the numbers, because the only way they could have done that is by producing more growth or deeper cuts. As we are already the fastest growing G7 economy I find that unlikely, but that is my opinion.

Your analogy is far too simplistic and just plain wrong for the situation, there are far more variables and than you are suggesting. For a start you failed to mention that your card carrying citizen had been racking up debts exponentially in previous years while his wages were cut. 

You can spin it whichever way you like, but simple economic fact is when you were losing more money than you are now, your situation has improved. You are in a better position than you would have been had that change not happened.

We are in a position where we will soon be able to start reducing our overall debts if we so choose, if Ipswich town continue their improvement then so will they be, we couldn't be in that situation without steady improvement, its not a snapshot in time, it has to be judged over a period. 
 
morty

morty

Moderator
Staff member
Haha, a fan has just won 250k for his team to spend in the transfer window. I wonder if they will be allowed to spend it?

Untitled_zpsd99701f4.jpg
 
Canaryboy

Canaryboy

Well-Known Member
I'm sorry, but the point is whether you are talking Ipswich Town or UK PLC the facts remain the same, a reduction in yearly losses is an economic improvement, that is a fact. A business that had been making losses, but cuts those losses, is improving, that is how the market would view it, because that's what it is. Anything else is a fundamental misunderstanding of economics.
Oh so I could have a business with a turnover of £10,000,000 and post-tax losses of £2,000,000.

Next year my turnover could fall to £7,000,000 with post-tax losses of £1,900,000.

My business is improving in the eyes of 'the market'? No sorry, we're from different schools of thought, lets leave it at that. I think its silly that you are using a budget deficit as the sole premise of determining an "improving financial position". 
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Canaryboy

Canaryboy

Well-Known Member
We are in a position where we will soon be able to start reducing our overall debts if we so choose, if Ipswich town continue their improvement then so will they be, 
Eh? Ipswich Town have a declining turnover and an increasing annual cost of servicing their (growing) debt, how on earth could they possibly be the slightest bit closer to reducing their overall debts? 

Their losses fell by £2.62m, whilst their debt increased by £3.56m over the same period! 

If it is true that the interest rate on their debt is 5.4% then they have to find £4.64m just to service their debts over the next year, almost their entire annual gate receipts. All they have done this year is added an additional £192,240 to the cost of servicing their debt, against falling revenues. That's about 500 season tickets. 

Have you ever considered applying for a job with the treasury? You'd have done a much better job of putting a positive spin on a desperate situation than Chloe Smith MP managed with Paxman  :p
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Monty13

Monty13

Active Member
Eh? Ipswich Town have a declining turnover and an increasing annual cost of servicing their (growing) debt, how on earth could they possibly be the slightest bit closer to reducing their overall debts? 

Their losses fell by £2.62m, whilst their debt increased by £3.56m over the same period! 

If it is true that the interest rate on their debt is 5.4% then they have to find £4.64m just to service their debts over the next year, almost their entire annual gate receipts. All they have done this year is added an additional £192,240 to the cost of servicing their debt, against falling revenues. That's about 500 season tickets. 

Have you ever considered applying for a job with the treasury? You'd have done a much better job of putting a positive spin on a desperate situation than Chloe Smith MP managed with Paxman  :p
Their losses fell by by 2.62 million and yes £3.56m was their debt increase, lower than the year before.

So they have added £192,240 in loss a year but reduced by 2.62 million, so they have net gained 2.43 million they wouldn't have had this time last year, which they would have had to borrow increasing the debt even further.

So is that an improvement or worsening of the situation? What exactly about this are you not getting?

I'm glad you don't work at the treasury, they'd all be running around shouting we're doomed in their best Private Fraser impressions... :p   

doomed.png
 
Monty13

Monty13

Active Member
Oh so I could have a business with a turnover of £10,000,000 and post-tax losses of £2,000,000.

Next year my turnover could fall to £7,000,000 with post-tax losses of £1,900,000.

My business is improving in the eyes of 'the market'? No sorry, we're from different schools of thought, lets leave it at that. I think its silly that you are using a budget deficit as the sole premise of determining an "improving financial position". 
Depends, how big is the business, how much debt is on the balance sheet in comparison to overall net worth? Are sales increasing? Is the company in a market in an overall downward trend? Is it investing in technology? there are massive variables.

Amazon's share price has been pretty steady for years, until taking a dip this year, even though it's been posting losses repeatedly. Big companies regularly post losses, the size of which and the reason will determine whether it has an affect on share confidence, not the fact it's losing money.

But its not just the deficit, *sigh, the economy is increasing which is causing the deficit to be less of a factor. I think it's silly that you are only looking at the amount of debt and not considering any other factor, so we are from very different schools.

.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Canaryboy

Canaryboy

Well-Known Member
Their losses fell by by 2.62 million and yes £3.56m was their debt increase, lower than the year before.

So they have added £192,240 in loss a year but reduced by 2.62 million, so they have net gained 2.43 million they wouldn't have had this time last year, which they would have had to borrow increasing the debt even further.

So is that an improvement or worsening of the situation? What exactly about this are you not getting?

I'm glad you don't work at the treasury, they'd all be running around shouting we're doomed in their best Private Fraser impressions... :p   
When I've got some spare time I'll create an excel graph showing Ipswich's annual turnover, their total debt, and the cost of servicing that debt (using 5.4% as the interest rate) from 2007 onwards, perhaps that will help you to understand how their financial situation is not "improving". 

Their latest accounts only show that they are one step closer to insolvency, whether they took a smaller step than last year or not. Insolvency being the point at which a business cannot meet its obligations to lenders. That's what sharp annual increases in the cost of servicing debt against a fast declining turnover symbolises to me, hence why I consider the position to be "worsening". 

And of course we know that almost all of the 'improvement' on their loss came from the sale of an asset, £2m for Cresswell, are you expecting them to be able to continue to sell assets each year or not? Their debt is now about 630% of their turnover! They only just pulled themselves below the FFP threshold by selling their best player. 

I've always felt that there were too many accountants in government and too many economists in business, so perhaps this is why we are just not on the same wavelength (on this subject, I'm sure we can find lots of things to agree with when it comes to football :) )

If anything this shows us that comparing the UK economy with Ipswich Town's finances was and is a bit of a silly idea, and lets hope we never see the day that our national debt is 630% of our GDP, because then we'd really be in trouble! 

But surely you can see how deep in the sh*t Ipswich are just based on that figure alone? Before we won promotion to the Premier League our debt accrued over many years was somewhere around 90% of our turnover wasn't it? We paid it off over three years of Premier League football.  

Promotion is the only realistic hope that Ipswich have of being able to decrease their level of debts, but each year they borrow money trying to achieve it Premier League football must become less and less likely? If more of their money each year is going towards servicing a growing debt (even selling their best players to subsidise it), then less and less of their turnover is going towards maintaining a playing squad capable of winning promotion. 

There is just no prospect whatsoever of them being able to reduce their debt without a promotion. 
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Sit with the City fans who turn up

Free to join, free to read. Introduce yourself, pick a player thread, and get stuck into the next match thread.

Create a free account
Top