Our Rivals Thread

[The Great Mass Debater]

I would be content with a Middlesborough win today.  If we match Middlesborough and beat them a week Friday then we finish above them.  Watford are outside our control and a defeat for them gives us space.

Fact is that if we win all our games then we are promoted unless Watford win all theirs and score more goals so a Watford defeat today changes that scenario.

Im still happy with the league table

Agree perhaps it might have been better for us it Boro had won, but Im pretty sure we'll go up if we pull off an unlikely 5 wins.

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

These are the next set of games:

Friday 10th April:

Brighton v Bournemouth

Saturday 11th April:

Derby v Brentford

Bolton v Norwich

Ipswich v Blackpool

Boro v Rotherham

Millwall v Watford

Big incentive for us on Saturday if Hughton does us a favour. Imagine Bournemouth dont win that game, we go into ours knowing we will go top if we win. Also we have to expect Watford to beat Millwall.

Interestingly Millwall's home record is identical to their away record, including goal difference(!): W4 D6 L10 GD-15

So statistically theres a 50-50 chance (from a Millwall perspective) that they might get something, and their games are running out fast.

Watford's away record is W10 D4 L6 GD+9 (so from a Watford perspective, also a 50% chance they wont win this). I know Im twisting the stats to reassure myself and that Im not weighting for the fact that Watford are much better placed than Millwall, but we need whatever reassurance we can get!

Brighton's home record (for the record) is W6 D7 L7 GD+1 and Bournemouth's away record is W10 D5 L5 GD+24

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

With games fast running out Im now calling this as a 4 horse race. Derby in 5th find themselves 5 points behind us in the Auto-promo places and 4 points behind Boro in 4th. With only 15 points to play for it is unlikely that 3 from the 4 teams above them will drop enough points for Derby to make up the ground, so think we can realistically rule Derby and those below out of the race. So here's whats left
 
 
Bournemouth's remaining 5 games:
 
Brighton v Bournemouth
Reading v Bournemouth
Bournemouth v Sheff Wed
Bournemouth v Bolton
Charlton v Bournemouth
 
 
 
Norwich's remaining 5 games:
 
Bolton v Norwich
Leeds v Norwich
Norwich v Middlesbrough
Rotherham v Norwich
Norwich v Fulham
 
 
 
Watford's remaining 5 games:
 
Millwall v Watford
Nottm Forest v Watford
Watford v Birmingham
Brighton v Watford
Watford v Sheff Wed
 
 
 
Middlesbrough's remaining 5 games:
 
Middlesbrough v Rotherham
Middlesbrough v Wolves
Norwich v Middlesbrough
Fulham v Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough v Brighton
 
 
 
Brighton with the chance to have quite the say on who goes up this year... Hopefully, Boro's loss today will be a hammer blow to their morale. If they drop points over the next two games and the teams above them dont, realistically by the time we play them they could have nothing to play for, which might change the dynamic of the game from the showdown we expected - we can only hope.
 
Think Bournemouth have probably the most straightforward run, some tricky fixtures left for the rest. Its Bournemouth's to lose. But hey, we went up in 2nd last time and that will do for me again, though it would be lovely to win the league, promotion is far more important.

 

[dj161]

Bournemouth's remaining 5 games:
 
Brighton v Bournemouth
Reading v Bournemouth
Bournemouth v Sheff Wed
Bournemouth v Bolton
Charlton v Bournemouth

If i was a Bournemouth fan I'd be rubbing my hands together at the finish line of the premiership being in sght

 

[Canaryboy]

Haha..... just typed this without posting with the score at 3-1, then went to make a cuppa:

"Don't know if I should be looking this far down the table, but would be nice if Leeds could score 2 goals to kill off any chance of a late Wolves surge, one less contender"

Got back to my desk with the cuppa and it's 3-3. 

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

Haha..... just typed this without posting with the score at 3-1, then went to make a cuppa:

"Don't know if I should be looking this far down the table, but would be nice if Leeds could score 2 goals to kill off any chance of a late Wolves surge, one less contender"

Got back to my desk with the cuppa and it's 3-3. 

Wolves are irrelevant now I feel, not necessarily to our fortunes because of course we could lose our last 5 games, but to the promotion race in general, 4 horse race now I feel

 

[dj161]

Wolves may not get automatic, but they're definitely still in the promotion chase, they're up to 6th now, and have been in and around the top 6 all season, I wouldn't write them off winning the playoffs either they're in great form at the moment, they've picked up 23 points from their last 10 games, the same amount of points that we've picked up, so I'd still keep an eye on their results with a keen interest

 

[Canaryboy]

Yeah our teams in it now really.

Have to feel sorry for Derby who lost their best 2/3 players through injury at the worst possible time. Chris Martin's return today and he scores and they win, shows just how good he is as a player, he's their talisman like Grant Holt was ours! 

I always rated Chris Martin but never expected him to go on to be the player I'd most like to see back here out of all who have departed in recent years. 

 

[Din]

Think it's between the top 4 now for the automatic promotion spots, with the other 4 battling out to be in the play-off's. I think if it's anyone's hands then it's Bournemouth's. Top of the league, the best goal difference, and all their remaining games are against teams outside the top 10, only complacency is gonna cost them now. Middlesbrough on the other hand still have to play us and Wolves. It would surprise me if they went up automatically with that in mind. I also think Ipswich have run out of steam, and now Derby have Martin and Bent back they'll cement their place in the top 6. So for me it's between Wolves and Brentford for the final play-off place. My money would be on Wolves purely because of the run they've put together recently.

Still 5 games left though, plenty of time considering how tight it is for things to change. There are still likely to be (to quote Blackadder) "More twists and turns than a twisty turny thing".

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

Think it's between the top 4 now for the automatic promotion spots, with the other 4 battling out to be in the play-off's. I think if it's anyone's hands then it's Bournemouth's. Top of the league, the best goal difference, and all their remaining games are against teams outside the top 10, only complacency is gonna cost them now. Middlesbrough on the other hand still have to play us and Wolves. It would surprise me if they went up automatically with that in mind. I also think Ipswich have run out of steam, and now Derby have Martin and Bent back they'll cement their place in the top 6. So for me it's between Wolves and Brentford for the final play-off place. My money would be on Wolves purely because of the run they've put together recently.

Still 5 games left though, plenty of time considering how tight it is for things to change. There are still likely to be (to quote Blackadder) "More twists and turns than a twisty turny thing".

Do people your age still watch Blackadder? If so great! You'll be telling me that you like Red Dward and have listened to 'The Bends' next!

 

[Din]

Blackadder is still well-liked yeah. I would say the vast majority of people my age have seen at least a bit of it, mainly because it's our parents generation that watched it. I really like it though, and so do a lot of people I know.

I've heard of Red Dwarf but can't say I've ever seen an episode of it, and I'm afraid I have no idea who 'The Bends' are, sorry

 

[GJP]

Have to feel sorry for Derby who lost their best 2/3 players through injury at the worst possible time. 

I don't feel sorry for them.

Quite happy about it really.

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

Blackadder is still well-liked yeah. I would say the vast majority of people my age have seen at least a bit of it, mainly because it's our parents generation that watched it. I really like it though, and so do a lot of people I know.

I've heard of Red Dwarf but can't say I've ever seen an episode of it, and I'm afraid I have no idea who 'The Bends' are, sorry

Haha, suspected as much! 'The Bends' is an album by Radiohead

 

[Din]

Haha, suspected as much! 'The Bends' is an album by Radiohead

Oh right. I have heard of Radiohead to be fair.

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

These are the next set of fixtures:

Tuesday 14th April:

Leeds v Norwich

Boro v Wolves

Reading v Bournemouth

Wednesday 15th April:

Forest v Watford

Friday 17th April:

Norwich v Middlesbrough

Saturday 18th April:

Bournemouth v Sheff Wed

Watford v Birmingham

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

Leeds home record W8 D5 L8 GD0            Norwich away record W12 D4 L5 GD+12    Form - Leeds lost last 3 games, Norwich won last 4

Boro home record  W14 D4 L3 GD+29       Wolves away record W8 D6 L7 GD-5          Form - Boro lost 2 won 3 of last 5 games, Wolves form won previous 4 before losing today

Reading home record W8 D5 L7 GD-3       Bournemouth away record W11 D5 L5 GD+26  Form - Reading not won in last 5 games though drawn last 3, Bournemouth won 3 of last 5

Forest home record  W9 D5 L7 GD+8        Watford away record W11 D4 L6 GD +11           Form - Forest lost 3 of last 5, Watford won 3 of last 5

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

The battle for auto promo is tight, but it may have escaped people's attention that the race for the play-offs is also tight. With games running out there are two mini-leagues that have developed between 1-4 and 5-8. Going to be some very disappointed fans at the end of this season. Hope we arent amongst them

 

[Din]

Wolves and Forest are potential stumbling blocks for Boro and Watford. I can't see Bournemouth slipping up now to be honest, but that said in this league you never know. We need someone to drop points somewhere because despite the faith I have in Alex Neil and in my team at the moment, I don't think we'll win all of our next 4 games.

 

[Yellow Fever]

I agree about the two mini-leagues. With Derby drawing, they're well adrift now. Unlike today, Boro and Watford face challenging games against Wolves and Forest. Bournemouth at Reading should be an away win, but it's hardly a gimme. It's going to be an interesting week, that's for sure. Beating Leeds would take some of the pressure off against Boro.

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

Wolves and Forest are potential stumbling blocks for Boro and Watford. I can't see Bournemouth slipping up now to be honest, but that said in this league you never know. We need someone to drop points somewhere because despite the faith I have in Alex Neil and in my team at the moment, I don't think we'll win all of our next 4 games.

The difficulty is that we could win our last 4 games and still not get promoted. Watford could easily out-score us over the next 4 games. Really need Watford to drop some points. Their remaining 4 games are:

Nottm Forest v Watford
Watford v Birmingham
Brighton v Watford
Watford v Sheff Wed