How many points required this season to stay up?

[Dubai Mark]

It is still relatively early doors, however I am seeing signs that this season in the EPL is going to be one where there will be more "surprise results" and less fashionable teams having great runs than we have seen before. 

Just look at the likes of Leicester, West Ham and Palace so far, usually we only see one "surprise package", that's three of them taking serious points away from those bigger sides expected to be in the top six. Then we look at Chelsea and Liverpool to a lesser degree under performing (also Swansea too) and it all adds up to a very interesting remaining season with very much the "three leagues in one" scenario developing, and more teams capable of taking points from the big teams than we have seen before. .

Sure, under new management we would expect to see both Sunderland an Villa perhaps picking up some more points than expected now, certainly the latter, but it seems to me that the total number of points required to survive may well be less than previous seasons.

So could this be a season where as few as 32 even 30 points will be enough, just putting it out there, what do you think? 

 

[KeiranShikari]

Leicester, West Ham and Palace all play in a similar fashion. I think others at the bottom will twig and start picking up points of their own.

Can't see Sunderland, Villa and Newcastle staying as bad as they have been so it's going to be quite the job for Neil to keep us up. We all knew that part though.

 

[morty]

I think Villa and Bournemouth will be relegated. Unfortunately I think Newcastle and Sunderland have enough quality / spending power to make a recovery.

I think you're right though, it could be a low total required, but I would lean more towards 35.

 

[Killiecanary]

Would love to think villa are heading down...Remi Garde has a good reputation in France - but they are 8 points adrift.  Agree with Morty that Bournemouth are in trouble - especially as Eddie Howe appears to have no Plan B - or refuses to think about using one a la Blackpool several years ago. 

Still think Watford will have a spell of struggle and won't be far above the cut off line at the end of the season.  And I reall hope sunderlands Groundhog Day style great escapes will come to an end this season.

As for the points total - 36 for me goes down, 37 just survives!  

 

[eatonparkboy]

Watched the Villa game and they took a leaf from our book and kept a shape that in the main, wouldn't get pulled all over the place. And the scoreline says it worked although it is clear that Man City ought to have taken at least one chance.

So I don't think it is cut and dried that they will go down but they didn't look to have anything up front, so the goals could be in short supply.

Bournemouth will stick to their guns as this season is an adventure for all concerned with the club and I think they fear relegation less than any other club in the division, Howe is ambitious but he doesn't have the back up. I think he spent his money on Mings and Gradel and now with Wilson out for months, despite his positive sound bytes, I think their Chairman will not give him enough in January.

I think Sunderland look in the worst shape to be honest. I think Fletcher is going to have to plough a lone furrow and I don't think their is enough imagination left in Allardyce's locker to play anything different. Clubs shouldn't get caught out by this style of football anymore.

Newcastle ought to be able to pick up enough home points to stay up but look very lightweight and we all know their best victory this season flattered them.

Swansea should get enough draws to stay healthy as well.

Stoke have changed their approach but I think a healthy Shawcross will marshal them enough at the back to stay up.

Watford, for all their firepower are not scoring and if their defence encounters problems, I think they will struggle.

Albion look a sterile outfit to me, and the Pulis formula will fail one year and it could well be this year. Maybe their outstanding away form will just be enough.

And that brings it back to us. I think the new style has shown promise. But I think a lot depends on AN's bravery in telling Russell Martin that he is on the bench unless we capitulate or injuries/suspensions occur. And I think he has to be brave enough to play like the second half yesterday and defend higher up the pitch and that gives Wes a better chance to dictate play, especially as the 4-1-4-1 looks to be here to stay. Swansea were toothless but not all are going to be so sterile. This Plan B worked but it is work in progress. Yes we will stay up.

 

[Killiecanary]

Watched the Villa game and they took a leaf from our book and kept a shape that in the main, wouldn't get pulled all over the place. And the scoreline says it worked although it is clear that Man City ought to have taken at least one chance.

So I don't think it is cut and dried that they will go down but they didn't look to have anything up front, so the goals could be in short supply.

Bournemouth will stick to their guns as this season is an adventure for all concerned with the club and I think they fear relegation less than any other club in the division, Howe is ambitious but he doesn't have the back up. I think he spent his money on Mings and Gradel and now with Wilson out for months, despite his positive sound bytes, I think their Chairman will not give him enough in January.

I think Sunderland look in the worst shape to be honest. I think Fletcher is going to have to plough a lone furrow and I don't think their is enough imagination left in Allardyce's locker to play anything different. Clubs shouldn't get caught out by this style of football anymore.

Newcastle ought to be able to pick up enough home points to stay up but look very lightweight and we all know their best victory this season flattered them.

Swansea should get enough draws to stay healthy as well.

Stoke have changed their approach but I think a healthy Shawcross will marshal them enough at the back to stay up.

Watford, for all their firepower are not scoring and if their defence encounters problems, I think they will struggle.

Albion look a sterile outfit to me, and the Pulis formula will fail one year and it could well be this year. Maybe their outstanding away form will just be enough.

And that brings it back to us. I think the new style has shown promise. But I think a lot depends on AN's bravery in telling Russell Martin that he is on the bench unless we capitulate or injuries/suspensions occur. And I think he has to be brave enough to play like the second half yesterday and defend higher up the pitch and that gives Wes a better chance to dictate play, especially as the 4-1-4-1 looks to be here to stay. Swansea were toothless but not all are going to be so sterile. This Plan B worked but it is work in progress. Yes we will stay up.

an excellent analysis Eaton...oh how I would love to think Pulis might take WBA down...hadn't even dared hope that might happen!

actually think Swansea might just be in trouble.  Had a quick look on their forums last night and most of their fans in there seemed to think they were relegation material...Monk hugely under pressure too if they are even close to accurate.

 

[ZLF]

If we continue to average a point a game then I think we will be safe - 36/37 likely to be needed remains my view.

My suspicion is that it will be villa sunderland and bournemouth as they look significantly worse than any other side,  Swansea & Newcastle (who were dire in snatching a win on sat) & us in the high risk category. 

It remains very open though & for me its three from 8 in the bottom 10,  (excluding Chelsea & Stoke, who look like they are now starting to get the most from their summer signings).

 

[Dubai Mark]

Just read an excellent post by Ricardo on that other message board, just wish he would come over to this board, he also makes a great effort every home match to post a match report that is always a good read........Morty, if you know Ricardo, "have a word" ......see if he will "come over to the other side".

Seriously though, its all very interesting when you see the stats and makes you fully realise that we are already in a serious scrap!  As if you didnt all know that already! 

 

[It's Character Forming]

we are right in a scrap but that's no surprise TBH.  The concern for me is that I can't see Chelsea staying where they are so effectively there are 4 teams below us and except for Bournemouth they all have quite a few decent players and probably have better squads than us, man for man overall.  Villa and Sunderland have already changed managers - if the new one doesn't work you can see them trying again in time to give the new guy time to turn things around before the end of the season.

Just look at Sunderland the year we were relegated, or Leicester last year - with 3 points for a win, a team that is apparently in a hopeless position can go on a run and suddenly leap up the table.

At the same time, there are promising signs for us - Mbokani contributing, a clean sheet, and AN showing the ability to learn and adjust.  With Hughton we never had the ability to adjust our tactics and team setup to deal with the specific opposition, AN has shown he can do that.  And I think this will be the key difference this time that keeps us up, but it's going to be a nervy ride !

Although it did get a bit irritating last year to be told the whole time that we had a squad full of Premier league players and now we're told they're not good enough for the Prem.

 

[morty]

we are right in a scrap but that's no surprise TBH.  The concern for me is that I can't see Chelsea staying where they are so effectively there are 4 teams below us and except for Bournemouth they all have quite a few decent players and probably have better squads than us, man for man overall.  Villa and Sunderland have already changed managers - if the new one doesn't work you can see them trying again in time to give the new guy time to turn things around before the end of the season.

Just look at Sunderland the year we were relegated, or Leicester last year - with 3 points for a win, a team that is apparently in a hopeless position can go on a run and suddenly leap up the table.

At the same time, there are promising signs for us - Mbokani contributing, a clean sheet, and AN showing the ability to learn and adjust.  With Hughton we never had the ability to adjust our tactics and team setup to deal with the specific opposition, AN has shown he can do that.  And I think this will be the key difference this time that keeps us up, but it's going to be a nervy ride !

Although it did get a bit irritating last year to be told the whole time that we had a squad full of Premier league players and now we're told they're not good enough for the Prem.

I think we have a far, far stronger squad than the one we went down with.

And I do wonder sometimes if teams like Sunderland, Villa and Newcastle, really do have the stomach for a fight, Newcastle and Villa especially.

 

[Ricardo]

Just read an excellent post by Ricardo on that other message board, just wish he would come over to this board, he also makes a great effort every home match to post a match report that is always a good read........Morty, if you know Ricardo, "have a word" ......see if he will "come over to the other side".

Seriously though, its all very interesting when you see the stats and makes you fully realise that we are already in a serious scrap!  As if you didnt all know that already! 

Thanks for that Mark, always nice to know its appreciated.

My annual 12 game analysis is up on the Pinkun Board and you can safely bet that two of those named teams will go down and a better than 50% chance that three will.

Xmas is the vital time when the goal average will reveal who the droppers will be. Teams can get out of it as Leicester proved last season but that was an exception that proved the rule.

In 2002/03 West Ham were relegated with 42 points yet in 2009/10 they stayed up with only 35 points. In fact they would still have stayed up with 31 points because 18th placed Burnley only managed 30 points.

My estimate at this moment in time is that 36 points will stay up. I will have another look after the Xmas games.

 

[eatonparkboy]

It seems to me, the good analytical managers seem to find a way of transforming their sides. And I think AN thinks long and hard about his tactics before each game but depending on the availability of players, he might not pick a side that will always perform to the level needed to win games. And that is what it is about, winning enough games if you are us and at least 8 other teams around us.

I am hoping that we can keep our heads above water until the window opens again. Surely we will not fall short of signing the players AN wants this time. And I think if we can possibly get 9 more points by the new year (Watford, Everton and Villa wins), with new signings and the way the fixtures are, I'm positive we can get the probable 15 points more needed to stay up.

 

[Killiecanary]

Thanks for that Mark, always nice to know its appreciated.

My annual 12 game analysis is up on the Pinkun Board and you can safely bet that two of those named teams will go down and a better than 50% chance that three will.

Xmas is the vital time when the goal average will reveal who the droppers will be. Teams can get out of it as Leicester proved last season but that was an exception that proved the rule.

In 2002/03 West Ham were relegated with 42 points yet in 2009/10 they stayed up with only 35 points. In fact they would still have stayed up with 31 points because 18th placed Burnley only managed 30 points.

My estimate at this moment in time is that 36 points will stay up. I will have another look after the Xmas games.

I would like to,request one of those 31 points to stay up seasons then please!!

 

[eatonparkboy]

Thanks for that Mark, always nice to know its appreciated.

My annual 12 game analysis is up on the Pinkun Board and you can safely bet that two of those named teams will go down and a better than 50% chance that three will.

Xmas is the vital time when the goal average will reveal who the droppers will be. Teams can get out of it as Leicester proved last season but that was an exception that proved the rule.

In 2002/03 West Ham were relegated with 42 points yet in 2009/10 they stayed up with only 35 points. In fact they would still have stayed up with 31 points because 18th placed Burnley only managed 30 points.

My estimate at this moment in time is that 36 points will stay up. I will have another look after the Xmas games.

I know it was the old 1st Division not the Prem but it was close (1990-91) to its inception, and Sheffield United had four points after 16 games and stayed up.

 

[Ricardo]

I know it was the old 1st Division not the Prem but it was close (1990-91) to its inception, and Sheffield United had four points after 16 games and stayed up.

Yes, Sheff Utd lost 12 of their first 16 games and still escaped. it was the old first division with only two teams relegated but the teams directly above them on 10 and 11 points after 12 games were Derby and Sunderland and both went down. Which kind of proves my point that while you can escape with a good run, more often then not, you won't.

 

[It's Character Forming]

I agree with that.

I'm dubious how much we'll actually spend in the January window though, being honest.  You get terrible value making signings then.

 

[Yellow Fever]

I don't think we need wholesale changes. Priority is a quality CB who can play on the left side or the right (like van Dijk). If Grabban goes to Wolves or Bournemouth, then another striker will be needed. Other than that, we have a good squad of players who can keep us up. I started the season with a target of 38 points and I'll stick to that. We are one point off that with 4 teams below us. So far, so good. Any points off Arsenal will be a bonus, but Watford away and Everton at home should be opportunities for points.

 

[morty]

I don't think we need wholesale changes. Priority is a quality CB who can play on the left side or the right (like van Dijk). If Grabban goes to Wolves or Bournemouth, then another striker will be needed. Other than that, we have a good squad of players who can keep us up. I started the season with a target of 38 points and I'll stick to that. We are one point off that with 4 teams below us. So far, so good. Any points off Arsenal will be a bonus, but Watford away and Everton at home should be opportunities for points.

I think, as usual, things will be a lot clearer after the bust Christmas period. I think Grabban is all but gone, and if Lafferty picks his game up a wee bit ( which he seems to be doing) he may just still be here come the end of January. Going by rumours its entirely possible we'll end up with Vlaar and Gayle, with Grabban out. Which I wouldn't be massively unhappy with I guess. I still think we'll stay up, but the form of others could well be the crux. I still think both Sunderland and Newcastle have enough to get themselves out of it, I think Villa are pretty much done for.

Alex Neil, for me, is growing into the season, he is showing how he can adapt to give us the best chance of points, only being narrowly beaten ( scant consolation I know) shows he isn't getting it far wrong.

 

[eatonparkboy]

I'm positive that a couple of signings in key areas could help us move up the league. To be honest, I think the standard in the Prem is slipping and I haven't been impressed with any team apart from Leicester who, despite wealthy owners, are not considered a level above us.

A couple of players have not performed to their best for me but those players have the ability to do well, Redmond and Howson, so it might just be the tactics AN has them playing under.

I can certainly see any of the teams from WBA down finishing in the bottom three and I wouldn't even write Villa off yet as Leicester showed us what could happen last season. Christmas hasn't been kind to us but the rest of December and the whole of January is an area where a number of points can be gained and I'm hopeful of 15 points more by the end of January. That would probably leave us needing another 10 to stay up.

Obviously negotiations will be under way for any new targets and a good run from the current squad might encourage those we are after to join.

 

[It's Character Forming]

What worries me is the unpredictability of the league.  Look at Stoke when we played them last time we were in the Prem.  We deservedly won at their place when they were poor, and when they came to CR, their ambition was to get a point and they were more than happy with that (and we should have won that game too). Yet courtesy of winning 3 in a row at one point, they had their best ever finish in the Prem.  Or the way Sunderland overtook us that season, despite seeming dead and buried.  Or Leicester last season went on a phenomenal run.

So I hope we'll be ok but I am worried.  If we brought in an experienced CB and a decent striker with Grabban going to a Champ team, I'd be reasonably happy.