10 Games Left - Get Those Predictions In.

[The Great Mass Debater]

Going by the title odds a lot of people have put money on us recently. So it isn't only us with yellow and green tinted glasses.

With the table this tight, a new manager who hasnt done much wrong, majority of our Premier League team intact and on a good run of form we are the sensible choice 

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

this is what I got using the predictor table

1 Norwich             GD 46 Pts 91

2 Derby                GD 36 Pts 88

3 Middlesboro      GD 34 Pts 84

4 Watford             GD 32 Pts 84

5 Bournemouth    GD 42 Pts 83

6 Brentford          GD 18 Pts 81

7 Wolves             GD 14 Pts 79

8 Ipswich             GD 20 Pts 78

tried really hard not to post with my Norwich hat on, but I'll take that table anyway

Great stuff - totally different to my final table. Isnt it nice for it to be so unpredictable?!  (Though Id much prefer to be 20 points clear and observing the fight from above as a neutral!)

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

I used the predictor that GMD has linked to and got the below results. Funny as before using that I thought we'd have top 2 and Ipswich would have dropped out of the top 6. But hey, if we win against Fulham last day it could all be different thanks to my incredibly close GD. Not asking for much then

Watford            90pts GD 38

Bournemouth   89pts GD 45

Derby               89pts GD 43

Norwich           86pts GD 45

Boro                 86pts GD 39

Ipswich             79pts GD 21  

Pretty similar to mine. Cant contemplate anything but a loss to Fulham on the last day, and I think I had Chris Hughton getting his own back as well. Those two defeats are what do for us in my table

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

As Watford are being increasingly recognized as 'the danger men' - was loaning Bassong to them a great decision?

Hope someone comes in to tell me they lost all the games he played in!

 

[Safri15]

I had Hughton getting us back as well. Hopefully that's unrealistic, but can see it happening unfortunately

 

[Boyerboy]

http://www.dectech.co.uk/football_sites/football/rankings.php

If the link doesn't work Google Fink Tank

The dectech site is interesting in several ways.

It is updated weekly taking account of all game stats and giving weight to recent results.

It predicts us being top ranked team

It predicts us finishing as Champions

It predicts much lower points totals than most other prediction sites

 

[Safri15]

Interesting site that Fink Tank, had not seen it before. 50% chance of a home win against Derby sounds about right in the "upcoming fixtures" section. Would expect slightly higher than 47% chance of away at Huddersfield though.

If you play with the game simulator it reckons we'd have nearly 50% chance of beating a lot of the Premiership teams (with us at home) on current stats, which just isn't true I'm afraid. Even against Southampton it gives it as 34% us win, 38% they win and 28% a draw. But I suppose this is because the data for our stats come from playing other championship teams, not Prem teams like theirs.

But still, very interesting site that!

 

[Boyerboy]

You say that Saffers but if we were in the Prem would we not expect to win nearly half of our home games say 8 out of 18 or nearly 50%?.

If Southampton were to play us at Carrow Road do you really think it would not be a match that could go either way? 

Because I think both propositions are closer to reality than you propose.

But, it is about probabilities.  When we beat Man Utd 1-0 we had an 18% probability of a win.  In 100 games against them at Carrow Road we might well win 18.  That just happened to be one of them.

It's a guide and an opinion albeit one based on some science but nothing more

 

[Boyerboy]

Typo - 8 out of 19 of course

 

[Din]

To be honest it's pretty much impossible to predict how it'll finish up, even this close to the end of the season. On current form I would fancy us to at least get automatic promotion, but that's not quite how the Championship works, as demonstrated by us losing at home to Wigan last week. 

The signs at the moment though are good. We have been very consistent over the last 7/8 games, whilst it would appear that some of the other teams are gradually starting to fall off the pace (Bournemouth have 2 wins from 7, Derby 2 wins from 7, Boro 3 wins from 7). It's gonna be exciting one way or the other that's for sure.

 

[Safri15]

I had to do the predictor again as I just wasn't happy with my results yesterday. Unfortunately still ended up with Watford and Bournemouth getting the top 2. Main difference was that we are now 3rd, with Ipswich still 6th. So a play-off semi-final against the scum. Got us drawing with Leeds and Brighton away, and losing to Fulham on the last day. Other than that a perfect record. Shows how close I think its going to be, if only dropping 7 points will mean not enough for top 2. The one thing I haven't really accounted for is teams at the bottom scraping for survival, which as we all know, they can pick up a lot of points drawing towards the end of the season.

So all in all I've decided the predictor is rubbish, as I think we'll be champions!

 

[Yellow Fever]

I've given up making predictions for this season, but we should have a clearer picture by the end of the next 3 fixtures before the international break. We have as good a chance as anybody, but the Derby match is crucial for us. Looks like Martin and Bent will both still be out for that. Interesting that we've returned to the top on Oddschecker, just shading Bournemouth, Derby, Boro and Watford in that order. Interesting that the Bookies (or their punters) don't rate Watford as highly.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/promotion

 

[Killiecanary]

Derby's next four games really are make or break for their season aren't they?

I think we will know after those whether they are going to be in the mix at the end or not.

My predictor had Norwich finish third a point behind Middlesborough, so I decided that the software was obviously wrong and didn't put it up here!

But it really is tighter than a camels arse in a sandstorm!! I actually did the predictor three times and got three completely different (and equally plausible) final outcomes!

Strap in for the ride folks!

 

[Surgeryman]

I don't bother with any of these sorts of things as they are meaningless really, harmless fun at the most. We could go on and storm the league or equally mess it up! Of course if you like doing these then fine but although they may make you feel better they won't guarantee anything! There are too many variables for me.

We are in a great position and should just take each game as it comes as Alex Neil will be doing. Play offs I would think are reasonably a safe bet for us as a minimum. Just hope to avoid the Binners as you can just bet the game they step it up for will be the play off final!

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

The play-offs will also be a rollercoaster, whoever gets in

 

[Yellow Fever]

Having some time free, I finally decided to have a go at the predictor and got this:

1) Norwich

2) Bournemouth 

3) Boro

4) Derby

5) Watford

6) Brentford 

I tried to be objective and was surprised that Derby weren't higher, but I'll stick to that as a prediction. The other sides lose more than we do with draws against top 8 teams, whereas we only have two such games - Derby and Boro, both at home, so 4 points from those.

 

[Boyerboy]

Those are the same six as Fink Tank Fever albeit with the playoff four in a slightly different order.

That seems to me to be right.  Wolves and Ipswich lack the points and squad depth/quality respectively to make the top six.

At this stage, Middlesbrough have the best defence but a relatively weak attack.

Watford are the reverse.

We have the second best defence and equal second best attack (with Bournemouth)

It will be fine margins and here will be topsy turvey results affecting all teams.

What a ride but our quality will count over the long term   Individual results are very hard to predict but form and quality will out over ten games.   I have no doubt now that our squad strength and Neil's leadership mean that automatic promotion is ours to lose.

 

[Yellow Fever]

I've had another look at Fink Tank Fever, BB, and can see what you mean. For me, it comes down to Boro, Derby and Watford all having tougher schedules than City. 

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

Disappointing but inevitable - we've gone from 7 wins in 8 to 1 win in 4 now.  Cant keep red-hot form up forever I guess. Need to do the business against our rivals though, thats why Derby will be such a costly mistake. When we fail to beat our rivals it also dashes our confidence about beingf able to defeat them in the play-offs. We need to give Middlebrough a big dose of pay-back.

Surely we're due a win over Fulham at some point, please god let it be this year - we badly need to pick that bogey

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

Using the predictor (you dont have to do all the fixtures, just those relevant to the promotion race) My table came out as follows (I've factored in the inevitable loss to Fulham on the last day!):

1 Bournmth   +48    91
2 Watford      +42    91
3 Derby         +41    90
4 Norwich       +42    87
5 Brentford     +17    83
6 Middlbro      +34    80
7 Ipswich        +27    80

Sad to say but with 2 games left Im not far wrong