Play-offs

[Din]

I'm really hoping we finish 3rd, because it's almost certain if we finish 4th that we will play Derby, and I really don't like the prospect of playing them over 2 legs. They are the team to look out for for me, especially now that they have Martin and Bent back, to add to the likes of Ince, Lingard, Russell. 

I'd feel pretty confident of beating any team that finish 6th over 2 legs, seeing as it's going to be one of Ipswich, Brentford or Wolves (most likely the scum). 

How many of us would go to Wembley then if we were to get there? I'm guessing a fair few. I certainly would be. Most of my family are West Ham fans and I've been to Wembley a couple of times to see them play (most notably when they won the play-off final against Blackpool). Never seen Norwich play at Wembley before though, so would absolutely love to.

That all said though I still wouldn't completely rule out the prospect of automatic promotion. Bournemouth are not playing well at all that moment, and I think they'll definitely fall out of the top 2 in the next couple of games, and it's not at all impossible that Watford/Boro lose one of their next 2. Obviously it is a bit of a long shot, but as long as we win our next 2 then you never know.

 

[TA Canary]

Norwich never do things the easy way...

 
I'm not ready to give up on automatic promotion just yet. Assuming we win both our remaining games we need two of these things to happen:
 
- Watford lose one game (or draw both)
- Bournemouth lose one game (or draw both)
- Boro draw one game
 
There's a decent chance of one of those happening, and as long as we beat Rotherham there will be a shot at a top two spot on May 2nd.
 
Funnily enough Hughton is going to be instrumental for us now, as Brighton are going to play Watford at home and Boro away.

 

[morty]

I think we are all mentally prepared for the play offs now, and I don't think it holds much fear for any of us.

We went through the stages of :-

"Yeah the play offs would be a massive achievement"

"Sod the play offs, we want to win the league"

"Okay, I'd be happy going up second behind Bournemouth"

"Yeah, play offs it likely is, bring it on, they don't scare me"

Obviously if circumstances mean that we still get auto, then bonus!

 

[It's Character Forming]

I agree Morty

There's now a week between games so no need to rest anyone, go out to win both and see if 2 of the teams above us slip up

If not I don't think it'll be a real let down now, everyone at the club will be thinking the playoffs are likely now.

The only team I want to avoid in the playoffs is Boro....

 

[SussexYellow]

Norwich never do things the easy way...

 
I'm not ready to give up on automatic promotion just yet. Assuming we win both our remaining games we need two of these things to happen:
 
- Watford lose one game (or draw both)
- Bournemouth lose one game (or draw both)
- Boro draw one game
 
There's a decent chance of one of those happening, and as long as we beat Rotherham there will be a shot at a top two spot on May 2nd.
 
Funnily enough Hughton is going to be instrumental for us now, as Brighton are going to play Watford at home and Boro away.

This would be the free scoring Brighton team that have scored 1 goal in their last 5 games and 2 in their last 7.

As you say there is a reasonable chance of one of those things happening, but two much less so.

I think we would be best to follow the old adage of "preparing for the worst and hoping for the best".

 

[TA Canary]

I admit it's not very likely but strange things happen at this stage of a season.

For a really "fun" scenario there's a possibility where all the current top 4 go into the last game on 85 points, won't that be something. 

 

[Killiecanary]

Unfortunately for me if we get to Wembley I will be out of the country!

So still hoping for the automatic place...

 

[Killiecanary]

I admit it's not very likely but strange things happen at this stage of a season.

For a really "fun" scenario there's a possibility where all the current top 4 go into the last game on 85 points, won't that be something. 

For that to happen this weekend Watford would need to lose, boro and Bournemouth draw and we beat Rotherham.

Not absolutely beyond the realms of possibility (although think Watford losing least likely of the 4)

But if it did happen Bournemouth would be top on goal difference and we would be second!!

There is a higher chance that Watford win (almost guaranteeing themselves of,promotion ) but all the other results are as above, meaning we would still be second on goal diff with all 3 clubs on 85 points.

Ok - my head is now sore!

 

[mustard gas]

Third. Bournemouth have better goal difference and would stay ahead of us.

 

[Din]

One thing I would say that gives us a slight disadvantage in the play-off's, is that 6th and 5th place (likely to be Ipswich and Derby) are already preparing for the play-off's, whereas for the last few weeks, and for the rest of this season whilst there is a chance of getting into the top 2, we do not want to finish in the play-off's and if we do miss out on automatic promotion then all the players are going to be very disappointed that they missed out, and motivating them for the play-off's might not be as easy as it is for Ipswich and Derby.

 

[It's Character Forming]

One thing I would say that gives us a slight disadvantage in the play-off's, is that 6th and 5th place (likely to be Ipswich and Derby) are already preparing for the play-off's, whereas for the last few weeks, and for the rest of this season whilst there is a chance of getting into the top 2, we do not want to finish in the play-off's and if we do miss out on automatic promotion then all the players are going to be very disappointed that they missed out, and motivating them for the play-off's might not be as easy as it is for Ipswich and Derby.

It's a good point and I always think the team that just misses out on auto promotion and ends up third often doesn't do well in the playoffs for this reason; equally a team that makes a late surge to reach 6 is on a roll and can do well in the playoffs because of it.

This is why I actually think it's helpful that our defeat to Boro happened with 2 games to go - essentially we all now know we're probably going to be in the playoffs and we know that auto promotion is out of our hands and it depends on two of the teams above us messing up for us even to have a chance.  So I'm hopeful this gives AN the time to get the team into the mindset of expecting to be in the playoffs and if anything happens in the league to give us a chance of 2nd it would be a bonus.

 

[It's Character Forming]

Third. Bournemouth have better goal difference and would stay ahead of us.

I think we'd be 2nd in this scenario - Bmth would go top but we'd have a better GD than Watford (currently 1 goal ahead of us, so if they lose a game and we win, by definition that will be reversed at the least) so we'd be 2nd, and Boro would be 4th.

How amazing that it's not that unlikely a set of results to see all 4 teams on 85 points going into the final game.