The politics thread.

[morty]

Your last paragraph is pretty much what Jenkins is saying at the end of his piece. The same today by Patrick Cockburn in the iPaper. That whatever one thinks of Trump his peace proposal is the only game in town at the moment (whether you like it or not). And I mean the generalised you not personal 'you'

Basically, like him or not, Trump is running this. Some people really can't get past that though, If Biden had proposed peace he would be lauded as a hero. The fact is that hatred of Trump overrides peoples ability to see facts. Europe has used America as a free ride for European defence for way too long now. Russia really isn't a threat to the US. Europe has become complacent with their defence spending in the last 35 years (I remember "Options for change" during Gulf war 1 where the armed forces were slashed brutally after the breakup of the USSR)

The EU thinks they are some kind of superpower, but the reality is that they do not have the money to continue this stalemate. Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO, and I doubt very much they will get EU membership either.

 

[Sonyc]

Basically, like him or not, Trump is running this. Some people really can't get past that though, If Biden had proposed peace he would be lauded as a hero. The fact is that hatred of Trump overrides peoples ability to see facts. Europe has used America as a free ride for European defence for way too long now. Russia really isn't a threat to the US. Europe has become complacent with their defence spending in the last 35 years (I remember "Options for change" during Gulf war 1 where the armed forces were slashed brutally after the breakup of the USSR)

The EU thinks they are some kind of superpower, but the reality is that they do not have the money to continue this stalemate. Ukraine will never be allowed to join NATO, and I doubt very much they will get EU membership either.

I think Europe is discovering that they are not a superpower (if they truly believed they were before). Trump will possibly become a uniting force for Europe, if he isn't such a figure already. Maybe Europe has to learn to stand on its own. Successive presidents have moaned about their dependence on the US but I can't see Trump rowing back on his stance. And for the next 4 years Europe needs to work a lot out. Who one trusts is the tricky part. It feels like a massive reset in world geopolitics. And that is unsettling at the moment. I hope paths can be found to a peaceful coexistence

 

[morty]

Trump warned the NATO members about how much they weren't spending on defence during his last presidency. And nobody listened.

The thing about defence spending is that it isn't just a tap you can switch on and off, military procurement is notoriously slow and inefficient, you don't just walk down to Tanks'r'us and pick out the latest model. And on that note, a defence white paper recently admitted that Britain only has 40 fully working tanks. We put all our eggs in the basket of a smaller, more mobile, deployable force after the Berlin wall fell.

As much as I dislike Labour, the Tories have to take the blame for this. It is a difficult thing getting defence spending right, as folk wouldn't be happy if less was, say, spent on the NHS as a consequence. But we really have dropped the ball here.

 

[Sonyc]

Trump warned the NATO members about how much they weren't spending on defence during his last presidency. And nobody listened.

The thing about defence spending is that it isn't just a tap you can switch on and off, military procurement is notoriously slow and inefficient, you don't just walk down to Tanks'r'us and pick out the latest model. And on that note, a defence white paper recently admitted that Britain only has 40 fully working tanks. We put all our eggs in the basket of a smaller, more mobile, deployable force after the Berlin wall fell.

As much as I dislike Labour, the Tories have to take the blame for this. It is a difficult thing getting defence spending right, as folk wouldn't be happy if less was, say, spent on the NHS as a consequence. But we really have dropped the ball here.

Defence spending is one thing and I think I agree with Trump (and previous presidents, who didn't act on their positions, presumably because of their interest in retaining cooperation and relationships....something Trump isn't bothered about. Just America first). But I'm sceptical about negotiating with Putin and there were many talks with Ukraine before.
To see the US leadership now appearing to more align itself with Russia is a strange thing to behold. Prior to the Ukraine invasion Russia would have been a country we (wife and I) would have loved to visit and spend a good time in. Like most huge countries with history it's fascinating. I don't think I'd have felt unsafe or bothered by 'reds'. It's probably a no-go area though now for the rest of my life.
The US (Trump) / Russia linkage is intriguing and I wonder what the US population thinks of it all (Maga and non Maga). Will they turn on Trump? I still believe it's the economy that will be a big part of his undoing as I've said before. His ranging cuts (Musk) will be felt by his core support. Maybe they'll accept that, who knows. Will time likely run out on him?

 

[morty]

This Ukraine you mean? At the end of the day, NATO, The EU and Europe need America more than it needs them. And Trump's dislike of just pouring billions into disputed regions is pretty justified. Lets face it, nobody gave a shit about Ukraine before it was fashionable to do so, and previous administrations have sided far more obviously with Russia, Obama practically endorsed the invasion of Crimea.

 

[morty]

Putin invaded Georgia under Bush.
Putin invaded Crimea under Obama.
Putin invaded Ukraine under Biden.
Putin did nothing under Trump, but they want you to believe Trump is a Russian asset.

 

[Sonyc]

This Ukraine you mean? At the end of the day, NATO, The EU and Europe need America more than it needs them. And Trump's dislike of just pouring billions into disputed regions is pretty justified. Lets face it, nobody gave a shit about Ukraine before it was fashionable to do so, and previous administrations have sided far more obviously with Russia, Obama practically endorsed the invasion of Crimea.

View attachment 1510

Ukrainians feel they can hold off Russia through drone technology according to an FT piece today (currently supported via Musk's satellite Starlink but could be changed to EU assistance ahead). A lot has been learned in the last 2 years in battle. Maybe they don't need the US as much as is being talked about? I don't know. The comments came from those involved in combat and a reasonable assessment not merely bravado.
Source: Rachman in the FT.

Alternative sources suggest that stopping aid could cripple Ukraine within 2 months, 4 at most.

 

[morty]

Ukrainians feel they can hold off Russia through drone technology according to an FT piece today (currently supported via Musk's satellite Starlink but could be changed to EU assistance ahead). A lot has been learned in the last 2 years in battle. Maybe they don't need the US as much as is being talked about? I don't know. The comments came from those involved in combat and a reasonable assessment not merely bravado.
Source: Rachman in the FT.

Alternative sources suggest that stopping aid could cripple Ukraine within 2 months, 4 at most.

Their biggest loss would be satellite and airborne intel that the US provides that they have no capability for.

 

[Sonyc]

Their biggest loss would be satellite and airborne intel that the US provides that they have no capability for.

They've been hung out to dry then if that's the case. Humped.

 

[morty]

They've been hung out to dry then if that's the case. Humped.

All he had to do was go to the White House and do the dance, and try not to swing his balls about...

 

[Sonyc]

All he had to do was go to the White House and do the dance, and try not to swing his balls about...

Your take on his conduct on TV differs a good deal different to my viewing. There were two other people doing that though. One particularly.
And speaking of Vance, he has been rounded on today for his comments by the Tory party. Quite right too.

 

[morty]

Your take on his conduct on TV differs a good deal different to my viewing. There were two other people doing that though. One particularly.
And speaking of Vance, he has been rounded on today for his comments by the Tory party. Quite right too.

Nobody came out of that with any dignity, but the fact is Zelensky was there wanting a great deal of money from Trump, and he has left with nothing. So he didn't exactly play smart, did he?

As an armed forces veteran I can tell you that I am not in the least bit offended by Vance's comments.

 

[Sonyc]

Nobody came out of that with any dignity, but the fact is Zelensky was there wanting a great deal of money from Trump, and he has left with nothing. So he didn't exactly play smart, did he?

As an armed forces veteran I can tell you that I am not in the least bit offended by Vance's comments.

View attachment 1511

That's fair enough...it's good that you're not. But you're an adult with first hand experience. Leaving aside the offensiveness or not it's just a person's words at the end of the day.

I don't think it adds much in the way of diplomacy and this is the VP. You can see how and what he thinks of other people and other countries. I'm no longer surprised. But I'm probably of an old school mindset about being respectful of others. And there is little room anymore for that kind of attitude! Insult litters social media.

I think in Vance's case it shows real weakness and an inferiority complex because it isn't big to make such comments. But he's playing to his base I guess.
Even if there's a grain of truth in a situation it is sometimes useful not to say it. People only make such comments when they're weak. Anyone criticising another implies they feel small and got at themselves so they try and deflect it. The same with that press conference. All a bit childlike isn't it?

 

[morty]

That's fair enough...it's good that you're not. But you're an adult with first hand experience. Leaving aside the offensiveness or not it's just a person's words at the end of the day.

I don't think it adds much in the way of diplomacy and this is the VP. You can see how and what he thinks of other people and other countries. I'm no longer surprised. But I'm probably of an old school mindset about being respectful of others. And there is little room anymore for that kind of attitude! Insult litters social media.

I think in Vance's case it shows real weakness and an inferiority complex because it isn't big to make such comments. But he's playing to his base I guess.
Even if there's a grain of truth in a situation it is sometimes useful not to say it. People only make such comments when they're weak. Anyone criticising another implies they feel small and got at themselves so they try and deflect it. The same with that press conference. All a bit childlike isn't it?

Like I said, I don't think anyone came out of it with dignity. Zelensky now has a little less as he is desperately backtracking.

There is truth in what Vance implied, I guess some people just don't like hearing it. Literally every single military action in my lifetime (bar a few) has been carried out with the US involved. I guess he was kicking back to some people implying they don't need America's involvement. Which they clearly do.

 

[Sonyc]

Like I said, I don't think anyone came out of it with dignity. Zelensky now has a little less as he is desperately backtracking.

There is truth in what Vance implied, I guess some people just don't like hearing it. Literally every single military action in my lifetime has been carried out with the US involved. I guess he was kicking back to some people implying they don't need America's involvement. Which they clearly do.

No maybe not.
Apologies for posting so much today btw. I've been reading a lot about the situation and then expressing my thoughts when arguably I should do for myself what I'm suggesting Vance should do. ...to shut it.

 

[morty]

No maybe not.
Apologies for posting so much today btw. I've been reading a lot about the situation and then expressing my thoughts when arguably I should do for myself what I'm suggesting Vance should do. ...to shut it.

No apologies required, it has been a good discussion!

 

[Sonyc]

No apologies required, it has been a good discussion!

There's the old saying "may you live in interesting times" - which probably isn't Chinese in origin after all. And the last decade has certainly been interesting!

The last government was the worst in my memory (realise not everyone would agree) and many parts of society seem to be getting worse (so much to say here) and the world feels more dangerous (less places you can freely go to). Then, if I also put my mind to it I could probably argue a case that life is getting better for most. Or...maybe I'm getting old ...or have too much time on my hands (though that will change soon) and so on.

 

[morty]

The Tories were all played out, for various reasons. People thought that Labour couldn't possibly be worse, you can imagine my opinion on that.

I think a huge factor has been Covid, not the only one but I think we probably underestimate just the effect it had. Our economy was heading back to being back on track and it has been absolutely torpedoed not only by the amount we had to spend on it, but also the double whammy of the fuel crisis. There is no money to spend on anything, we are barely treading water in most respects.

Covid also affected society in many ways, people became isolated, and now are a lot less trusting of the govt, and pharmaceutical industries. As a society we have become far more cynical.

 

[Sonyc]

The Tories were all played out, for various reasons. People thought that Labour couldn't possibly be worse, you can imagine my opinion on that.
I think a huge factor has been Covid, not the only one but I think we probably underestimate just the effect it had. Our economy was heading back to being back on track and it has been absolutely torpedoed not only by the amount we had to spend on it, but also the double whammy of the fuel crisis. There is no money to spend on anything, we are barely treading water in most respects.
Covid also affected society in many ways, people became isolated, and now are a lot less trusting of the govt, and pharmaceutical industries. As a society we have become far more cynical.

Yes Covid was a major thing. Underestimated? Definitely. Many governments would have struggled in my opinion because they were learning in real time. The after-effects are still being felt in society too, especially in the field of work. I agree about the effect on education and isolation too.
That said, I felt it was spectacularly mishandled and even now I shudder thinking back to those press conferences by Hancock and the aftermath of Barnard Castle, Partygate, the handling of contracts and so on. I expect the enquiry will lay out the lessons sometimes next year.
An astonishing time really, partly surreal in fact. No wonder it's left a deep impression.

 

[Sonyc]

https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1896948147085049916?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1896948147085049916%7Ctwgr%5Ea2082b00b4d3340453757ba2d73494b25914ddf2%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2025%2Fmar%2F04%2Fzelenskyy-ukraine-peace-plan-ready-work-with-trump

It seems it's back on.