Will Adams' Wes obsession cost us promotion?

[Yellow Fever]

Wes is now 32. He can't go on playing every game or he'll burn out later in the season. The 4-2-3-1 is our most effective formation IMO and it's perfect for Wes. Both Grabban and Lafferty can play wide (but not as wingers). The  4-2-3-1 allows the FBs to play as wing-backs and provide six attacking players against packed defences. I'd also like to see Howson and Tettey in mid-field in those situations, starting against Rotherham, which is now a must win.

 

[Agent Dale Cooper]

Wes is now 32. He can't go on playing every game or he'll burn out later in the season. The 4-2-3-1 is our most effective formation IMO and it's perfect for Wes. Both Grabban and Lafferty can play wide (but not as wingers). The  4-2-3-1 allows the FBs to play as wing-backs and provide six attacking players against packed defences. I'd also like to see Howson and Tettey in mid-field in those situations, starting against Rotherham, which is now a must win.

Agree with all that, the 'Wes out wide' experiment clearly isn't working (and has never worked).

4-2-3-1 works best, I think; personally I'd give Grabban a rest as his performances have dwindled a little bit in recent games. Jerome has to start every match as long as his body is up to it; in my eyes he's the most complete all-round striker in the division. Give him the right ammunition from midfield and he can score 30 for us this season, no question. We don't even have to play Wes 'in the hole'; in tougher games we could play Howson or Odjidja there, to 'beef up' central midfield where required. Wes is a talismanic player who can change a game, but the trouble is he often changes how other people have to play in order to accommodate him.

 

[-Matt-]

I don't think it'll cost us promotion, but continuing to unbalance the team by playing Hoolahan down the left will certainly cost us points. Constantly drifting inside will focus our attacks down the right, and with no left sided width to speak of, the opposition defence can double up on Redmond easier.

With that in mind, it becomes a case of losing some of the effectiveness of other players, as well as Hoolahan.

It's always been a feature of his game that the positions he occupies and the things he tries, he loses the ball a fair bit. When he has the ball down the left and loses it he only really has Olsson for cover, and if he's overlapping then then the three remaining defenders have to get across to cover. Not ideal, especially as hoolahan doesn't really have the pace to make up for his mistakes. Lose the ball in the number 10 "hole" and you should, in theory, have 2 or 3 players around you to win it back.

Play him as a number 10 in a 4231, and make the hard choice about which of the strikers you're going to play. It's rarely a good idea to make certain players undroppable and play them in the wrong system.

Just look at Welbeck at the moment, for a slightly different example. Roundly abused at Utd for being crap, but never played up front because Rooney is untouchable, despite his tendency to completely unbalance their team by getting himself out of position. He's now being played in his correct position and Arsenal seem to be getting the best out of a player that most people thought wasn't worth 16 quid, let alone £16m.

 

[SussexYellow]

I agree with pretty much all of that Matt.

Save for the Man U comparison, and thats because I do not watch them enough to have a view.

 

[GJP]

For the record (and as can be seen on the Welbeck thread in Other Football), I've always been a fan of Welbeck and thought he was a top signing for Arsenal.

As it goes, I sort of think Grabban is a bit like Welbeck in the way some people are already writing him off because they see him as wasteful or not as tidy with the ball as he should be.

While Grabban isn't the same calibre of player as Welbeck it doesn't really sit well with me how many complaints people have got over a guy who clearly works very hard and has already stuck away 6 goals - regardless of the nature of the finish.

 

[morty]

For the record (and as can be seen on the Welbeck thread in Other Football), I've always been a fan of Welbeck and thought he was a top signing for Arsenal.

As it goes, I sort of think Grabban is a bit like Welbeck in the way some people are already writing him off because they see him as wasteful or not as tidy with the ball as he should be.

While Grabban isn't the same calibre of player as Welbeck it doesn't really sit well with me how many complaints people have got over a guy who clearly works very hard and has already stuck away 6 goals - regardless of the nature of the finish.

If I'm honest, I really don't understand the criticism. Some people have some awful short memories.

 

[-Matt-]

If I'm honest, I really don't understand the criticism. Some people have some awful short memories.

Grabban strikes me as a "right place, right time" kind of striker. No bad thing given how many chances we're going to create this season, and makes him an excellent signing.

I think, realistically, he should probably have another goal or two to his name, purely on the number of good chances he's had.

Step up to the premier league like we're planning to and that kind of profligacy in front of goal will hurt, as the number of chances will halve, at least.

 

[morty]

Grabban strikes me as a "right place, right time" kind of striker. No bad thing given how many chances we're going to create this season, and makes him an excellent signing.

I think, realistically, he should probably have another goal or two to his name, purely on the number of good chances he's had.

Step up to the premier league like we're planning to and that kind of profligacy in front of goal will hurt, as the number of chances will halve, at least.

I'm firmly in the camp of "we'll worry about the Premier league when it happens" and I think Grabban will score 15-20 goals this season. 

 

[GJP]

Also worth remembering some people weren't sure Holt would be up to the Prem.

But perhaps Grabban has got the same sort of thing about him. Not the greatest player you'll ever see but will keep trying until the ball is in the back of the net.

 

[-Matt-]

I'm firmly in the camp of "we'll worry about the Premier league when it happens" and I think Grabban will score 15-20 goals this season.

I agree completely. Don't get me wrong. He's well on course for an excellent season. I can see him, Jerome and hooper (when he's fit) all grabbing 15+ this season. That's if they all get the minutes on the pitch, which is far from guaranteed at the moment.

Also worth remembering some people weren't sure Holt would be up to the Prem.

But perhaps Grabban has got the same sort of thing about him. Not the greatest player you'll ever see but will keep trying until the ball is in the back of the net.

I wasn't saying he's not up to it. At 26 he's not "young", but he's possibly a couple of years off his best, with a manager who's looking to nurture our attacking talent. He's already going to score us plenty of goals, and I think he'll get even better.
Anyway...we're slightly off topic.

 

[Graham Paddon's Beard]

As I have just mentioned elsewhere it seems clear to me that the "hole" that Wes operates in behind the strikers so effectively at times , is so much smaller / non existent at home against teams sitting with more players deeper . Look at the performance against Blackpool where Wes got in behind the midfield. Compare that to the situation at home where he is operating in front of 8 defending opposing players. I think him being "wide" is a red herring. Ive read some reports about him sitting wide of a midfield four, but it is a fluid system and more often than not he is quite central.

Yesterday was crying out for Wes to be replaced by a more direct running player (Lafferty) with more central players being in higher positions. on the shoulders of the Rotherham CB's. Sadly it took 70 minutes to see it. The frustration on the faces of  Grabban and Jerome was clear .  Too many times our forward player received the ball deeper and with his back to goal. It was all a bit Hughton-esque at times.

Adams has to break down teams that have parked the bus. He has the squad to do it.

 

[Din]

As I have just mentioned elsewhere it seems clear to me that the "hole" that Wes operates in behind the strikers so effectively at times , is so much smaller / non existent at home against teams sitting with more players deeper . Look at the performance against Blackpool where Wes got in behind the midfield. Compare that to the situation at home where he is operating in front of 8 defending opposing players. I think him being "wide" is a red herring. Ive read some reports about him sitting wide of a midfield four, but it is a fluid system and more often than not he is quite central.

Yesterday was crying out for Wes to be replaced by a more direct running player (Lafferty) with more central players being in higher positions. on the shoulders of the Rotherham CB's. Sadly it took 70 minutes to see it. The frustration on the faces of  Grabban and Jerome was clear .  Too many times our forward player received the ball deeper and with his back to goal. It was all a bit Hughton-esque at times.

Adams has to break down teams that have parked the bus. He has the squad to do it.

Completely agree with this. At the start of the second half yesterday we were crying out for someone to fill that hole, but there was just no-one there. It's no coincidence that when we did put someone in there (Lafferty) we started playing much better.

 

[Yellow Fever]

Also agree, and Lafferty made a big impact when he came on. He deserves a start.

 

[ZLF]

we continue to have 4 options,  

• Stay as we are to keep 2 up front but remain disjointed and mis-shapen
• Stick with 2 up front & go to a real 442 and drop wes (must be a live option)
• Stick with 2 up front and go 3-2-3-2 to accomodate wes in the middle (seems defensively optimistic but if teams continue to park the bus why not?)
• Return to one up front, go 4231 & play wes in the middle

I did take a look at some stats and there is a marked difference in Grabbans perfomance since we abandonded 4231 - he scored 4 in 4 and got 75% of his shots on target with 25% of all shots ending in a goal.

Since Jerome started playing he is "down" to just 2 in 7, just 21% shot accuracy and 5% of shots becoming a goal..    It seems to me that Grabban may be a much better lone striker (has the whole pitch to move into?) than as part of a pair?  

(CJs stats,  from starts,  are 5 from 5 starts, 39% on target with 21% of shots becoming goals)

For me it just confirms a return to 4231 is preferable as it gives us a better shape overall,  stretches the opposition across the width of the pitch and suits Grabban better - I am also confident that Jerome can do that role effectively too

 

[lappinitup]

For me it just confirms a return to 4231 is preferable as it gives us a better shape overall,  stretches the opposition across the width of the pitch and suits Grabban better - I am also confident that Jerome can do that role effectively too

With six goals each in the first eleven games, do you really think we can afford to drop either of them to the bench?

 

[splutcho]

With six goals each in the first eleven games, do you really think we can afford to drop either of them to the bench?

Yes, because I think our performances were drastically better when we only played one of the two. We also got the best results with one up front.

 

[Yellow Fever]

Agree with that Splutcho, but Jerome and Grabban could play together in a 4-2-3-1, and Lafferty is another option.

 

[ZLF]

With six goals each in the first eleven games, do you really think we can afford to drop either of them to the bench?

yup.

as already answered its about winning games;   grabban only has 1 since starting with jerome and we have dropped more points with them as a pair.

The alternative is to drop wes,   who is one of the prime providers of chances;   my money is on fewer points and goals with two strikers and no wes than 1 striker and wes in the hole and width. 

The current mish-mash of trying to play wes, redmond and two strikers is not working.

 

[It's Character Forming]

Yes for me we need Wes for home games as he can unlock defences. But 2 up front hasn't worked so well.

So one route is to got 4231. But we then either drop Grabban or Lafferty.

Alternative is to go 352. Gotta be worth considering against teams that come to CR with no ambition except to try to defend and see if they can nick a goal lon the break.

 

[eatonparkboy]

I like Wes and always have but do know that if he played 46 games, you would only see him at his very best and damaging in maybe 30+% of those games.  And most of those will probably come away from home where there isn't always a wall of defenders in front of him.

Its a problem for the manager to sort. If you drop him after a couple of ordinary or poor performances, you might just be doing it too early. Conversely, if you don't do it soon enough, when do you?

We do have a large and talented squad. And luckily it is only the manager who has to make the decision. We all have different ideas. I watched SKY and Murphy was touted as a player who is dynamic enough to break down stubborn defences at Carrow Road. That is another position I believe worth exploring. Murphy out wide and Redmond in Wes position. Others may laugh or scoff but I believe all options are open.

I don't think the manager has any obsessions but like all other managers must have a nucleus of a team he will continue to pick because he believes they will come through for him. At the moment, Wes is part of that nucleus but should really poor form or injury take him out of the team, I believe the manager is not so silly as to put him back in just because of who he is.