Brexit.

[morty]

Much like the Scottish independence thing, I find myself struggling to get actual facts and information to help me decide how to vote.

Leaning slightly towards leaving, I struggle to see the benefits of being part of Europe, the migration thing worries me, I read that Britain had tried, over 50 times, to veto decisions made in the European Parliament, and had been defeated on every single one, so I don't feel our voice is being heard.

And I refuse to be scared about trade deals, business is business, I doubt anything will change there.

I also read recently that Germany has essentially assumed charge of the Dutch armed forces ( How the hell, given history, did that happen??!!) which indicates just how much Germany is pretty much in charge of it all.

Sorry, I'm not European, I'm British.

 

[Canaryboy]

I'll be voting for us to leave the EU. 

The European Union is moving closer and closer towards political, social, economic and military integration. So they are basically creating a superstate inspired by the USA (or the USSR). 

That's fine, they can do that, but I'm happy remaining British and would prefer we remained an independent nation state. The Japan get on just fine as a large island nation. So do the Australian's (although they consider their country to be a continent more than an island).

Canada hasn't had to become a state of the USA to prosper. 

Although the UK leaving the EU will without a doubt result in another Scottish independence referendum, especially if 51% or more Scots vote to remain in the EU in June. 

 

[Canaryboy]

And I refuse to be scared about trade deals, business is business, I doubt anything will change there.

Iceland, a country with a population not much larger than that of Norwich, has managed to secure trade deals with all of the worlds major economies. 

Also, we're a net importer, not like Germany and France are going to start imposing huge tariffs on our goods.... We'd just reciprocate, it would cost them more than it would us, its not like the German car industry can suddenly afford to stop selling Audi's to the worlds 5th largest economy. 

 

[Gaffer]

I'll definitely be voting leave.for all the obvious reasons but I also think leaving will help the UK economy in the long term. It's true that in the short term there might be a shake out of businesses who have put all their eggs in the EU basket but the truth is the EU is one of the slowest growing economies in the world with 50% youth unemployment in some countries. Leaving the EU would be a great opportunity to make our own trade deals just like highly successful economies like South Korea do. And we can negotiate those deals according to our own interests rather than the interests of German car makers. If the French want to start making Melton Mowbray pork pies then I'm going to start a business labelling fizzy wine from Manchester as Champagne. It's just fizzy wine FFS, who's going to taste the difference?

 

[Canaryboy]

I really don't see how it would affect most general consumer businesses, agriculture exports is the only industry I can see it having a big impact on, but we aren't even self sufficient in food and the subsidies that farmers receive from the EU actually force them to not operate at full production.

Whilst agriculture may have a difficult time adapting (remember we can replace the subsidies easily out of our contribution money),we would see the return of the fishing industry when we get our exclusive fishing zone back. Perhaps if we didn't have to allow boats from landlocked central European countries fish in our waters the town of Grimsby wouldn't be grim enough to be the subject of a Sacha Baron Cohen movie.

Sorry to say that I'm drunk again, hope the above makes sense, two pints of Peroni, two bottles of Leffe, and a pint of something IPA (five drinks is all it takes!).

 

[morty]

That Leffe is strong stuff mind

 

[Bill and ben]

I do like that, stating the benefits of leaving the EU while drinking the products of that union!

im mildly pro leave. Ideally I'd like to stay in a much reformed version but Cameron achieved nothing with his 'negotiation' . 

In the short term we will likely see some harm but in the long run I think we will be no worse off as a whole with some winners and some losers. 

 

[morty]

I do like that, stating the benefits of leaving the EU while drinking the products of that union!

im mildly pro leave. Ideally I'd like to stay in a much reformed version but Cameron achieved nothing with his 'negotiation' . 

In the short term we will likely see some harm but in the long run I think we will be no worse off as a whole with some winners and some losers. 

And thats the issue, Europe does not give a flying fig about what Britain wants. If we could push the reforms through, I would be a lot more likely to want to stay, but as you say, Cameron is getting nowhere with them.

 

[Canaryboy]

I do like that, stating the benefits of leaving the EU while drinking the products of that union!

That's the point though isn't it, we're a big market for the EU, they aren't going to want to put up big barriers to trade when we are such a big market for their goods and services. 

When the pro-EU camp scaremonger about the effect on our export markets they are being ridiculous, we've got a lot of leverage if things get a bit messy. 

 

[Lavanche]

There is quite big bunch of pro-leavers in Finland too, but what makes me to stand with EU is that we have 500 million people in Europe and compared to rest of the world that is quite small number. India and China are pushing forward mostly by milking their own citizens and Russia is trying their best to make new USSR by force and contracts.

I know UK is quite much bigger country than what Finland is, but still in my opinion, if we want to stay at the top of "civilization" and protect democratic world where we take care of eachother and try to make this world sustainable place to live there shouldn't be a question about leaving. This is kind a culmination point in history, if EU collapses and we again start to make selfcentered deals and compete "without the rules" against each other like rest of the world is doing we are only biting our own ankle and create economical power vacuum which is then filled by Russia and Asians. world will be worse place for our children and their children.

Our economical growth has been slow in Europe, but that really is not because of EU, most of the choises that led here were made by independent governments and all the mess was just left for us tax payers to deal with and then this Arabic Spring thing hit the fan. In my opinion it is very short sighted to leave at the bottom of the wave.

Also I doubt there is much support for central powered states, but in my opinion there is nothing bad if Europe would walk a bit more hand to hand in areal defence and foreign policy as long as it doensn't effect too much how interior politics are handled in member states.

People forget EU was formed to remove tensions between major powers in Europe and that is real success story. I doubt there will be imminent chaos if EU collapses, but tensions will rise again and look what Russia is doing at the moment. That is what happens when interests are crossed and from that kind of hostility and provocativeness will lead something very bad. NATO ofc is still there to keep tensions somewhat low.

I doubt UK benefits much from leaving and I doubt it hurts UK much as it would look like on the paper, but I think globally it will be disaster, if it starts butterfly effect in other countries whose people are at brink of leaving EU and aftermath of that would hurt both UK and Europe.Probably the world too as EU has been major factor in protecting this planet between China and US. Well only time will tell.

 

[morty]

We will still be part of NATO though, I don't see global defence being an issue connected with leaving the EU.

There was no EU in 1939 when Europe united against the Axis powers.

 

[Canaryboy]

Perhaps that is part of what makes us difference as an Island race Lavance, Finland has been invaded and occupied by both the Russians and Germans, whilst we lucked out in the geographical lottery and being an island has helped us in that respect. 

Its a different world now though, that was pre-nuclear weapons. In reality any future war between super powers would be more akin to the cold war and economic warfare has replaced the trenches.

 

[Gaffer]

Hate to be pedantic but Finland was never occupied by the Germans. Having gained independence from Russia they had to defend themselves against the Soviet Union so were co-belligerents with Nazi Germany. When they made peace with the Soviet Union they then had to fight the Germans off their soil. They were totally independent and behaved honourably throughout but lost a lot of territory to the Soviet Union. 

 

[Fenway Frank]

I'm not British, I'm English 

 

[morty]

I'm not British, I'm English 

I'm a Scottish spy living in Norfolk, but keep it to yourself

 

[the jarrold]

Personally, I'm pretty indifferent to all of this and won't be voting. I have always voted in elections both local and general but see this as pointless. I'm 62 and can remember life before the common market as it was then. When we entered the EEC, my life didn't change, I still worked long hours for not enough pay, I still had to struggle to pay the mortgage and put food on the table for my young family. So it will ever be for ordinary working class people such as me. In or out may have huge significance be you a farmer or a businessman or a member of the mega rich like Cameron or his mate Boris ( who wants out purely for his own political ambitions, being a European supporter at heart),or own investments and have massive overseas interests. I have none of these,for me life will just go on as it always does, the rich getting richer and the poor being left behind. If Cameron wants to stay in the EU I can only wonder what is in it for him personally and think that means there's not much in it for me. Either way it's not worth a trip to the polling station.

 

[ZLF]

I struggle to know either way.    Boris before "coming out" said it was his toughest choice to make either way an now its leave or nothing for him. - that simply isnt credible;  nor is cameron feeding lines to his big bully best friend.  The debate is based around ridiculous hyperbole & is our politics at its juvenile worst.

I dont think we will easily get to change the EUs rules and federalist aims which is a concern, as is the size of net budget outgoings.  

One the flip side I dont see the immigration or economy situations improving substantially if we leave.   I do see uncertainty having a financial impact that may take some time to recover from.  The sovereignty arguments really do not stack up for me - such pathetic faux posturing.

There are significant strengths and weaknesses to each argument , but I simply cant judge the net result.    The best interview I have heard was from the Norwegian prime minister who wishes Norway was able to influence the rules they have to play by despite being outside the gang. 

 

[morty]

I struggle to know either way.    Boris before "coming out" said it was his toughest choice to make either way an now its leave or nothing for him. - that simply isnt credible;  nor is cameron feeding lines to his big bully best friend.  The debate is based around ridiculous hyperbole & is our politics at its juvenile worst.

I dont think we will easily get to change the EUs rules and federalist aims which is a concern, as is the size of net budget outgoings.  

One the flip side I dont see the immigration or economy situations improving substantially if we leave.   I do see uncertainty having a financial impact that may take some time to recover from.  The sovereignty arguments really do not stack up for me - such pathetic faux posturing.

There are significant strengths and weaknesses to each argument , but I simply cant judge the net result.    The best interview I have heard was from the Norwegian prime minister who wishes Norway was able to influence the rules they have to play by despite being outside the gang. 

That is a very good point, that I, technically, agree with. But I don't believe that, despite being in the gang, we have much say. As I said earlier in the thread, I read that the UK has tried over 50 times to veto decisions made, and has failed every single time.

 

[Canaryboy]

The best interview I have heard was from the Norwegian prime minister who wishes Norway was able to influence the rules they have to play by despite being outside the gang. 

I bet the Norwegian prime minister doesn't want to give up their seat at the World Trade Organisation though, like we have, the EU negotiates on our behalf on the world stage. Meaning that tiny economies like Iceland have a platform which we don't. I bet he doesn't want to give up their currency either, seeing as their currency is extremely strong against the Euro.

In terms of our influence on the EU, our influence on EU decision making is about equal to that of Malta (population only a little more than half that of the county of Norfolk). They have full member status as we do. 

Also, we already have no say at all on many fiscal issues in the EU because they have their own currency which we don't use. There is a clear vested interest when we are a member of the EU but not participating in the same currency union as the other major economies within that union. 

We've spent the past couple of decades with one foot in and one foot out, and its time to decide to go all in our all out. Going all in effectively means joining the Euro I think, which would have been a complete disaster for our country. 

 

[Canaryboy]

for me life will just go on as it always does, the rich getting richer and the poor being left behind. 

I do see what you are saying, but things could be a lot worse for the working man, they could have no work at all, wages are lower than they should be but unemployment is relatively low in this country. See Greece, the direct effect of being stuck in a currency which is too strong for them, I'd rather be a working class Brit than a working class Greek.

I'm not saying that there is a realistic chance of us ever becoming Greece, but if we'd been a member of the Euro we'd certainly have much higher unemployment right now and we'd be a second rate economy in the Eurozone. 

The place may be full of greedy spivs who syphon their money off into tax havens, but I don't think people realise how important 'the city' is to this countries economy, and how many 'normal' jobs exist because of it, and how much our financial services sector could be put at risk if we remain in Europe and become subjected to a financial transaction tax which is designed to siphon off funds from London and into EU coffers. 

There are quite a few cities in the UK which are highly dependent on banking and other financial services, Leeds for example is built on financial services these days.

Almost 20% of the revenues generated by the EU FTT would come from the UK, one fifth. There are 27 member states. Its a tax designed to do nothing other than steal more money from the UK, to be filtered through Brussels (where they are good at losing huge sums of money and consider themselves exempt from audit),and then spent on projects decided by unelected officials? 

Now, a UK FTT which generates an additional £8bn a year from 'the city' and is directed to the UK Treasury to be spent on UK public services, or pay down our national debt, or to keep our libraries open, or to invest in flood defenses? That sounds fantastic.