More stats analysis

[Lone Star Canary]

I've been looking for good stats analysis sources for football for awhile now.  It doesn't help that the sport is well behind most in advanced analysis - it's probably where ice hockey was maybe 12-15 years ago.  I got into Sabermetrics about 30 years ago and later developed a few systems of my own for ice hockey (we're still a pretty small group working that sport).  Anyway, here's something I found today.  http://experimental361.com/2015/01/17/championship-update-17-jan-2015/

It's a couple of weeks old, but I think it reinforces what we know about Norwich.  The link above has a bit of narrative for each graphic but it's self explanatory...

Yeah, our defense really is that bad.  I'm trying to balance in my mind how much of this is back four vs. the midfield.

 

[morty]

Thats really interesting, cheers for sharing!

 

[Dubai Mark]

I like this, but to understand the situation when it comes to defending we need to know how the midfield unit and team as a whole perform when defending......and that has been our problem...its so clear to me.

 

[Jimmy smith]

I bet it was that blasted Charlton game that turned the whole analysis against us!

In all seriousness though, we've been highly inconsistent, that has been the problem. One we we win 5-0, the next we lose 2-1. We'd be better off winning 1-0 and drawing 1-1. This is why I think it's a motivational problem.

I think ironically, having Bassong back in the defence will stop some of this, as we won't be so easily breached whenever we come up against a bit of pace any more.

The theme before seemed to be if we score first, they give up and we run off with it but if they score first, they sit on the edge of their box and stubbornly hold out for a narrow win. The comebacks like Cardiff and Brentford games have long dried up.

 

[splutcho]

Very interesting, thanks for posting.

Just don't go and post it on the "other" page. They can't get their head around statistics. Makes them angry.

 

[Dandy Mountfarto]

I was saying this all season while everyone else was calling for Adams' head. The system he put in place was a good one and he was let down time and time again by individual mistakes from the defence, that and Wes getting injured early forcing the change away from the early season 4-3-3.

It was incredibly short sighted on the part of the board and the fans to force him out so soon.

 

[morty]

I was saying this all season while everyone else was calling for Adams' head. The system he put in place was a good one and he was let down time and time again by individual mistakes from the defence, that and Wes getting injured early forcing the change away from the early season 4-3-3.

It was incredibly short sighted on the part of the board and the fans to force him out so soon.

Or perhaps there are other factors in the decision, and the timing of it. And no, I am afraid I am not prepared to be more specific, but there is more to it than you realise.

 

[Dandy Mountfarto]

I guess it depends on whether it was a genuine resignation or not. If it really was Adams' decision then I can respect that.

 

[Yellow Fever]

I agree, DM, and Adams took the blame for individual 'unforced errors', like Turner failing to mark his man twice at consecutive corners against Reading. Almost the only chances they had in the whole game and yet they won 2-1. The same could be said about the Charlton game, just as Lonestar's statistics indicate. We are still one of the best teams in this league but we need to be far more disciplined.

 

[morty]

I guess it depends on whether it was a genuine resignation or not. If it really was Adams' decision then I can respect that.

Sometimes it is all too easy to look at things like this and perhaps make assumptions. Too many people ( Not specifically you) seem to like to portray our board as bumbling idiots who lurch from one crisis to the next. Yeah, they aren't perfect, nobody is, but they are a group of people who have success in other areas of their life, and have business acumen. Idiots they aint!

 

[Safri15]

Still can't quote or copy-paste on this forum thanks to my IE version. But in regards to Dubai marks post about working as a team. I think the last graph shows we actually do that pretty well. Very little chances given away, its just when we do give them they normally result in us conceding. So individual errors definitely the major problem, seen far too many of these this year.

We've all seen the discussions lately about a 'settled defence' and couldn't agree more that that is what we have really missed this season. Bassong may or may not be the answer, but just seeing the same 2 CB's week in week out, regardless of who, I think would be what makes the difference. For what it's worth, my ideal 2 would be Bassong and Bennett.

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

Liked that, as you say, confirms what we already know. I have always had the perception that we seem to knock at the oppositions door all game, they get one chance and score. I dont know how much of this is Ruddy - dont think he's having a bad season, but unlike in the Prem when he was saving everything, this season he seems to have little to do, but when there is an opposition chance it goes in. Cant really remember him making any howlers, but cant either rememebr too many games where he was like Marshall last season in the Cardiff game, or Stockdale in Adams' first. i dont know if Im being harsh on Ruddy there or not. he's no Lee Camp.

I just wondered if every football fan thought that due to watching games through their teams coloured glasses, but it seems the stats condfirm its just us!

 

[Lone Star Canary]

Very interesting, thanks for posting.

Just don't go and post it on the "other" page. They can't get their head around statistics. Makes them angry.

There are several "other" forums in my bookmarks, and while I am members on all of them, I've pretty much reduced my posting to this one.

Liked that, as you say, confirms what we already know. I have always had the perception that we seem to knock at the oppositions door all game, they get one chance and score.

Stats are like bikinis... they show a lot, but not everything.  I have the same perception as you, and I think it's a flip of our last three seasons, where we were the lesser talented team hoping to knock off a big name club.  Now we have the bullseye on our backs.

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

Sometimes it is all too easy to look at things like this and perhaps make assumptions. Too many people ( Not specifically you) seem to like to portray our board as bumbling idiots who lurch from one crisis to the next. Yeah, they aren't perfect, nobody is, but they are a group of people who have success in other areas of their life, and have business acumen. Idiots they aint!

I know you hate politics, but you could say the same about Party Politics. They love to portray the other as bumbling idiots lurching from crisis to crisis. Look at the stick poor Ed Miliband gets because of the way he looks, and caus eof the way he looks eating a bacon sarnie. Im no labour supporter but the personal criticism he gets is ridiculous. Isnt he a Professor of Economics?!

 

[Dandy Mountfarto]

I think everyone on this forum should have a gentleman's agreement not to mention politics at all even in the form of a reasonable analogy.

 

[The Great Mass Debater]

I think everyone on this forum should have a gentleman's agreement not to mention politics at all even in the form of a reasonable analogy.

Thats a bit political isnt it?

 

[ZLF]

it is an great chart;   not sure that solving just the cbs is the solution,  although it will definitely help.   The last 7 goals at least have come from individual errors,  being full backs and midfielders as well as a selection of centre backs - suggesting that concentration and individual responsibility is at the heart of the problem.

Its clear the team CAN defend (very few shots against us) so I can see why Neil has backed himself to make the players we have work rather than buy another

 

[Lone Star Canary]

Well if the game tonight wasn't epitomized in these charts, I don't know what is.

 

[Safri15]

Yup, really summed that match up perfectly!!

 

[It's Character Forming]

I'm always suspicious of stats in football because it is so much more complex than other sports which are more amenable to statistical analysis.

These stats tho I think are quite interesting and they support what most of us are thinking.

One point that contradicts many comments tho is that we are relatively effective at converting chances.  Quite a few people have pointed to Jerome and Grabban as wasteful - and I would agree with this about Grabban (who has clearly lost confidence in front of goal and here's hoping last night's goal will help him to get back in scoring form) but not Jerome.  According to the stats as a team we aren't wasteful, it would be interesting to know how it looks at the individual level.