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GJP
Well-Known Member
It'll also be interesting to see if the 3 centrebacks/2 wingbacks thing can actually get a result. If we go with it.
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GJP
Well-Known Member
But it didn't. So we'll see on Saturday if it can.
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GJP
Well-Known Member
Neither are Chelsea ;-)No, but Swansea aren't top of the league, are they?
Like you say, we'll see
Gaffer
Active Member
We need to do more than that. Our last relegation was caused in part by a Sunderland winning run that no one saw coming. Sunderland and Newcastle are both capable of repeating that.
morty
Moderator
Staff member
What are you basing your opinion that Newcastle or Sunderland can suddenly go on a winning run, on?
Current form?
ZLF
Well-Known Member
We have to convert the last three games improved attacking performance/same defensive efforts into points immediately.
We haven't won in two months and yet are still only in the bottom three because of goal difference (ie defence given no one has conceeded more) which shows that sunderland and newcastle are as woeful as us right now.
It start this sat, we effectively have a 3 team/14 game knock out mini-league - whoever gains most points or in extremis most improves (least deteriorates?) their goals difference takes the prize. Swansea or palace could be dragged in, but that is now extremely unlikely
The priorities are first to stop the stupid soft mistakes at the back, and second improve scoring by taking the chances we are now getting again. Jeromes misses are painful to watch, at least with him up top we are getting chances; people forget that before he came back we never had a chance to score.
It IS all in our own hands. But may not be for long if we don't step up over the next 4 weeks.
We haven't won in two months and yet are still only in the bottom three because of goal difference (ie defence given no one has conceeded more) which shows that sunderland and newcastle are as woeful as us right now.
It start this sat, we effectively have a 3 team/14 game knock out mini-league - whoever gains most points or in extremis most improves (least deteriorates?) their goals difference takes the prize. Swansea or palace could be dragged in, but that is now extremely unlikely
The priorities are first to stop the stupid soft mistakes at the back, and second improve scoring by taking the chances we are now getting again. Jeromes misses are painful to watch, at least with him up top we are getting chances; people forget that before he came back we never had a chance to score.
It IS all in our own hands. But may not be for long if we don't step up over the next 4 weeks.
Canaryboy
Well-Known Member
Stating the obvious perhaps, but whichever team out of Newcastle, Sunderland and Norwich can find some form (in terms of points) is staying up.
Sunderland seem to always muster up a late rally in the same way that Wigan did, so your typical punter would probably bet on Sunderland. Wigan's luck ran out eventually though.
Whenever we've had the pressure of needing to win the last game or whatever we've flopped.
But the league table shows three teams on 24 points and if we ignore Newcastle's game in hand then that gives as as good a chance as those two. Unfortunately I think its out of the three teams and that gives us a 1 in 3 chance of staying up.
We've got the worst form in the division over the last 8 games, so like ZLF said, points need to come immediately. We feel like we are overdue a little bit of luck, a few decisions to go our way (like the Chelsea back pass), or a lucky goal off of a bum cheek or something.
I guess that we could potentially drag Swansea into this, if we beat them and one of Sunderland or Newcastle also get a win then they are right in it? On the other hand, Swansea beat us and they are close to safe.
Not completely outside of the realms of possibility that Palace could get sucked in, but Wickham seems to have found his shooting boots at the end of the season again.
Sunderland seem to always muster up a late rally in the same way that Wigan did, so your typical punter would probably bet on Sunderland. Wigan's luck ran out eventually though.
Whenever we've had the pressure of needing to win the last game or whatever we've flopped.
But the league table shows three teams on 24 points and if we ignore Newcastle's game in hand then that gives as as good a chance as those two. Unfortunately I think its out of the three teams and that gives us a 1 in 3 chance of staying up.
We've got the worst form in the division over the last 8 games, so like ZLF said, points need to come immediately. We feel like we are overdue a little bit of luck, a few decisions to go our way (like the Chelsea back pass), or a lucky goal off of a bum cheek or something.
I guess that we could potentially drag Swansea into this, if we beat them and one of Sunderland or Newcastle also get a win then they are right in it? On the other hand, Swansea beat us and they are close to safe.
Not completely outside of the realms of possibility that Palace could get sucked in, but Wickham seems to have found his shooting boots at the end of the season again.
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I
It's Character Forming
New Member
I think Canaryboy is spot on. All 3 teams have been awful, which is why we're all on 24 points. We can pull Swansea back into it, only if we beat them.
It's a bit of a test of the "reversion to the mean" argument, which is the idea that replacing the manager gives a boost to a club because the club has done badly, which is why it sacks the manager, then results go back towards the average, which would (on average) happen anyway, even if the manager hadn't been sacked ! We're certainly due a bit of reversion to the mean !
Sunderland do have experience of beating the drop... basically that's because they're poor and repeatedly get dragged into the scrap. So like Wigan - or indeed Villa - you can only have so many years of being in the relegation dogfight before you are sucked down.
I was very pessimistic after we lost to Villa because of the manner of the defeat. I felt a bit better after the defeat to Leicester because we played well. But now we're at the position where performance counts for nothing and results are everything from here on in.
It's a bit of a test of the "reversion to the mean" argument, which is the idea that replacing the manager gives a boost to a club because the club has done badly, which is why it sacks the manager, then results go back towards the average, which would (on average) happen anyway, even if the manager hadn't been sacked ! We're certainly due a bit of reversion to the mean !
Sunderland do have experience of beating the drop... basically that's because they're poor and repeatedly get dragged into the scrap. So like Wigan - or indeed Villa - you can only have so many years of being in the relegation dogfight before you are sucked down.
I was very pessimistic after we lost to Villa because of the manner of the defeat. I felt a bit better after the defeat to Leicester because we played well. But now we're at the position where performance counts for nothing and results are everything from here on in.
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